Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Borges (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28fb615600135a42b08e66ca3f88cf316e38ebe5347b6c20f76f7586a50bf98b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Borgesof Nakashima, Borges
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,531
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,531 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Borges | 60c | 1,869$1,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.75 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc144…c809backed Nakashima | 40c | 1,325$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…69f2backed Nakashima | 40c | 502.61$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 311 | 46%143 W · 168 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac36…b1e1backed Nakashima | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.84 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Borges | 60c | 492.25$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.9 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Nakashima | 37c | 234.59$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.43 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Borges | 61c | 208.87$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.46 | 992 | 49.4%490 W · 502 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9deb…536fbacked Nakashima | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Nakashima | 37c | 193.25$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 270 | 47.8%129 W · 141 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Borges | 63c | 158.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.89 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -5.6wins | -0.24per pick | 55cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x37cc…f862backed Borges | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Nakashima | 39c | 108.36$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f0c…5ad0backed Nakashima | 66c | 84.51$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Nakashima | 47c | 84.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Borges | 34c | 81.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.54 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3892…8d8dbacked Nakashima | 39c | 81.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Borges | 33c | 61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.87 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Nakashima | 67c | 61$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4a…3026backed Borges | 62c | 47.43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ec…3cd6backed Borges | 64c | 47.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x713d…15d0backed Borges | 63c | 39.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 50 | 70%35 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…408dbacked Borges | 60c | 35.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Borges (+1.5)this page
- Borges vs. Nakashima: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Cincinnati Open: Nuno Borges vs Brandon NakashimaBrandon Nakashima won
- Set 2 Winner: Borges vs NakashimaBorges won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.