Europa Conference League · resolved market
NK Celje vs. AEK: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2904111e5a63afa679d999a971dcb36a9cf6ebb0ef327fc38aec64719da15727
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,176 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 44c | 4,000$1,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,759.99 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e2…2a5fbacked Over | 56c | 2,286$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005.74 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x351e…de8abacked Over | 56c | 1,558$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.52 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 59c | 696.47$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.47 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…07e4backed Under | 45c | 668.55$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 39c | 652.86$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.44 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 514.41$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.49 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4945…c502backed Over | 56c | 497.37$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec6…f388backed Over | 55c | 496.28$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…f7a1backed Over | 56c | 495.8$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcea…28b5backed Under | 44c | 485.8$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x612d…f623backed Under | 44c | 481$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4f…d99abacked Under | 44c | 467$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…970bbacked Over | 56c | 456.2$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…7782backed Over | 56c | 450.63$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b7…7fc6backed Under | 45c | 448$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Under | 43c | 409.99$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.25 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 43c | 376.76$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.21 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…4825backed Under | 45c | 373$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa19b…0f5fbacked Over | 55c | 324.72$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0189…cab8backed Over | 57c | 219.99$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.6 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Over | 58c | 215.52$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.52 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6516…dfdabacked Over | 56c | 213$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 83 | 69.9%58 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5544backed Under | 42c | 141.78$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.17 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc253…5800backed Over | 57c | 118.26$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.85 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb6…80aebacked Over | 58c | 112.64$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Over | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca7…0c48backed Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 30c | 79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 78c | 76.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 147 | 67.3%99 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 154 | 59.1%91 W · 63 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 46c | 47.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 38c | 40.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Over | 57c | 36.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6f…67a4backed Under | 45c | 36.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 57c | 31.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…a2dabacked Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Under | 43c | 24.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 66c | 22.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 234 | 61.5%144 W · 90 L | +26.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf74b…ba4dbacked Over | 56c | 19.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Over | 55c | 18.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc00c…1eccbacked Over | 58c | 17.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NK Celje vs. AEK: O/U 2.5this page
- NK Celje vs. AEK: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- NK Celje vs. AEK: O/U 1.5Over won
- NK Celje vs. AEK: O/U 3.5Over won
- NK Celje vs. AEK: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AEK (-1.5)AEK won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.