Europa Conference League · resolved market
NK Celje vs. AEK: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29a3a2c384d54e264c5c26428ddeaeb32302158d92b2e83f6cd123f19cd9d833
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,840 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x63a2…b4efbacked No | 44c | 6,787$2,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,800.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe54…dd5fbacked No | 44c | 6,252$2,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,501.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77d3…aad5backed Yes | 56c | 4,748$2,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,658.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd3…668ebacked Yes | 56c | 4,175$2,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,338 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1f…00c1backed Yes | 56c | 4,117$2,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,305.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 64c | 3,045$1,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,101.08 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a4…f0c0backed Yes | 56c | 1,781$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.55 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 11c | 645.49$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.4 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x170f…095bbacked Yes | 58c | 491.1$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked No | 44c | 468$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.08 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +5.9wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 43c | 389.48$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.48 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 44c | 374.91$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.05 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 42c | 294.1$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.05 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 42c | 281$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.16 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Yes | 57c | 265.02$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71a…f135backed No | 46c | 245.45$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.95 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 44c | 230.42$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.03 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 43c | 225.05$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.36 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b40…8ab4backed Yes | 59c | 221$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.96 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 42c | 193.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.15 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…bc30backed Yes | 58c | 173.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed No | 47c | 154.69$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.99 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd573…f99ebacked Yes | 56c | 150$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Yes | 46c | 116.15$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.43 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5142…ee20backed Yes | 57c | 115.22$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.21 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…3c2bbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -9.4wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Yes | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Yes | 65c | 77.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 147 | 67.3%99 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 43c | 67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…dc56backed No | 51c | 49.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…db2ebacked Yes | 60c | 41.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…7b3fbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Yes | 42c | 39.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 44c | 35.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff4…79e8backed No | 44c | 34.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa556…e483backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb329…2a8cbacked No | 45c | 29.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8cb…e13bbacked Yes | 59c | 27.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 58c | 24.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- NK Celje vs. AEK: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- NK Celje vs. AEK: O/U 1.5Over won
- NK Celje vs. AEK: O/U 2.5Over won
- NK Celje vs. AEK: O/U 3.5Over won
- NK Celje vs. AEK: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AEK (-1.5)AEK won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.