Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x291ef8bf80866f2fb91bf90cfb5e026f64b6008aa35f67ecd42bcfc50b266a96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,138
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,138 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 12c | 733.52$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.92 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf66…0179backed No | 27c | 290.92$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.25 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 255.97$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 66c | 249.69$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.34 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 76c | 247.98$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.59 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 246.13$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.84 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 34c | 241.74$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.56 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 13c | 213.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 14c | 172.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b8…4493backed No | 9c | 160.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 59c | 141.09$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.47 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 138.89$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 36c | 109.35$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 17c | 106.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 62c | 99.8$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.87 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa2…931bbacked Yes | 39c | 97.28$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.67 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 27c | 94.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 92.72$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 37c | 91.45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 70c | 69.65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 63c | 69.4$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 64c | 63.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 45c | 54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 46c | 49.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 45.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc1…2496backed Yes | 36c | 35.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 40c | 35.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed Yes | 80c | 34.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 79c | 31.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 39c | 29.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed No | 58c | 25.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 67c | 24.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0966…6ed2backed No | 63c | 23.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 63c | 22.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 63c | 20.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff6…8ac5backed No | 54c | 20.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb30…8a4cbacked Yes | 77c | 18.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…222bbacked No | 66c | 18.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f7…a036backed Yes | 79c | 15.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 55°F or below on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 74°F or higher on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on April 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.