Us Politics · resolved market
Trump executive order cutting Department of Education by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x292b67ee34eab13d1984a099a4c7b10517bc074685f91b3618c17a06ec0fa89e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,511
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd44c…ab91backed Yes | 72c | 3,211$2,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,311.42 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 28c | 3,161$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,275.92 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 3c | 2,414$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…421dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,625$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.53 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,624$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.3 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5724…73e5backed No | 63c | 1,586$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.71 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8258…ae68backed Yes | 36c | 1,250$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 7c | 1,135$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc30c…6509backed Yes | 1c | 1,086$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +720.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 12c | 1,043$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.23 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes | 26c | 851.98$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.52 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c5…61b1backed Yes | 3c | 517.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 4c | 511.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 7c | 450$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 98 | 10.2%10 W · 88 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1512…68f3backed Yes | 16c | 387.62$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.02 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa386…a3aebacked Yes | 36c | 218.31$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.48 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed Yes | 33c | 175$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2808…4ce6backed No | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3eb…c286backed No | 78c | 154.22$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.22 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 16c | 151.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe580…339cbacked No | 58c | 137.63$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…1aa4backed Yes | 26c | 135.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.52 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 70c | 133$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffdc…b530backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 77c | 96.38$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 43 | 86%37 W · 6 L | +8.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 33c | 94.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed No | 58c | 71.55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.05 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…e885backed No | 69c | 63.74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 29c | 55.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7313…cbbcbacked No | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3397…fe08backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef3e…eff5backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e1…91ccbacked No | 68c | 44.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…5f67backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…4bdfbacked No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6c…e4a5backed No | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7061…6096backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec2…0cb3backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 40c | 25.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb422…d0c6backed No | 67c | 25.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d72…7674backed No | 68c | 23.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 49cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc826…e03cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 80c | 16.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.