Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 30-31°F on January 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x292f4a42fb2cfded042b4ab356b3982a7f9bd37077bb5232533184e6068129cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,502
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,064
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,502 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5350…cbc2backed Yes | 33c | 800.96$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.54 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf1…7fc8backed Yes | 44c | 321.33$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked No | 73c | 247.91$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.94 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 34c | 213.94$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.46 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdde5…fd02backed Yes | 10c | 193.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 35c | 160.34$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 31c | 145.8$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a11…6df2backed No | 67c | 130$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f1…02bbbacked Yes | 39c | 123.28$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…1e50backed Yes | 38c | 111.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -5.1wins | -0.46per pick | 64cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9873…7cc5backed No | 71c | 109.14$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 68c | 105.49$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb72f…6df3backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 24c | 97.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 83$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.73 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…eb1dbacked No | 73c | 62.34$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 68 | 67.6%46 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…3e65backed No | 79c | 55.72$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb729…677fbacked No | 40c | 54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50fb…d80cbacked Yes | 60c | 54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ec…a189backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…026cbacked No | 66c | 42.21$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed No | 58c | 39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5065…fdbbbacked Yes | 35c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed No | 65c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a3…e3b7backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4996…6df4backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d2…0767backed Yes | 60c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5b…f665backed Yes | 60c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fcc…5258backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 30-31°F on January 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 25°F or below on January 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 36°F or higher on January 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 26-27°F on January 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 28-29°F on January 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 32-33°F on January 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 34-35°F on January 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.