MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2936c85d913539511d7c3034a7412fb2670dc965cf9c98382bdb6b18dddc977b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof St. Louis Cardinals, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,664 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked New York Mets | 1c | 1,562$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 3cpaid | +339.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked New York Mets | 54c | 582.35$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.15 | 474 | 47.3%224 W · 250 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 43c | 482.14$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273 | 352 | 45.5%160 W · 192 L | -13.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed St. Louis Cardinals | 45c | 415.77$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.83 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 46c | 404$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 43c | 399.99$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 3,303 | 46.3%1,528 W · 1,775 L | +22.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed New York Mets | 57c | 353.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 666 | 48.2%321 W · 345 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed St. Louis Cardinals | 45c | 352.27$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.44 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed New York Mets | 54c | 258.84$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed New York Mets | 34c | 214.42$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.93 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda2e…8904backed New York Mets | 57c | 211.47$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.97 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed New York Mets | 56c | 182.14$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked New York Mets | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed New York Mets | 54c | 166.53$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 47cpaid | -40%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1093…d547backed New York Mets | 11c | 140.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed St. Louis Cardinals | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed St. Louis Cardinals | 77c | 106.43$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed St. Louis Cardinals | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 1,301 | 50.2%653 W · 648 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed St. Louis Cardinals | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 45c | 79$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +6.4wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked New York Mets | 54c | 71.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed New York Mets | 57c | 55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed New York Mets | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b1…9a06backed St. Louis Cardinals | 46c | 48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed New York Mets | 53c | 42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked New York Mets | 51c | 41.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked New York Mets | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…f7dfbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 61c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed New York Mets | 39c | 27.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 97 | 51.5%50 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed New York Mets | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed New York Mets | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 950 | 41.5%394 W · 556 L | -48.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb228…ea0bbacked New York Mets | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.