South American Leagues · resolved market
Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x293a3a3a007a9a524868278a1a6b4af7dfec7a560970e20f11b8e9b9957d413a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,252
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,778
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,252 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac86…b3b3backed Over | 34c | 3,360$1,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,147.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…d7a0backed Over | 34c | 3,099$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.8 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 66c | 2,905$1,922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.59 | 3,407 | 51.3%1,749 W · 1,658 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 68c | 1,486$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.7 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 1,366$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.83 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 31c | 773.8$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.13 | 517 | 49.9%258 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 12c | 654.24$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.44 | 2,173 | 43.6%948 W · 1,225 L | -55.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Under | 68c | 382.35$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.35 | 95 | 67.4%64 W · 31 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 28c | 354.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 126 | 45.2%57 W · 69 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf343…fba6backed Over | 33c | 305.67$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.87 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f14…c845backed Over | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…f3c4backed Over | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 78c | 217.94$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f5…035cbacked Over | 27c | 203.7$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0189…cab8backed Under | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 220 | 49.1%108 W · 112 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df2…8621backed Over | 16c | 130$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 494 | 40.9%202 W · 292 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Over | 32c | 93.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…f103backed Under | 67c | 92.01$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 74c | 91$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e2…0dcdbacked Over | 19c | 78.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf158…aa4bbacked Under | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3864…a1b8backed Over | 33c | 54.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 72c | 50.74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Under | 70c | 46.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b35…768ebacked Under | 70c | 35.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 69c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 235 | 42.1%99 W · 136 L | -13.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 73c | 27.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d17…d4dcbacked Under | 79c | 21.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 66c | 17.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 2,614 | 54.2%1,416 W · 1,198 L | +25.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Under | 67c | 15.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: O/U 2.5this page
- Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: O/U 1.5Under won
- Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: CA Vélez Sarsfield (-2.5)Estudiantes de La Plata won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.