College Football · resolved market
Spread: TCU (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29440ff6e20bbff911bfa2f4d7d298b5c09a654b02edcfd72aec3b94013887a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- TCUof TCU, Cincinnati
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,287
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,259
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,287 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Cincinnati | 54c | 59,051$31,699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,698.88 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed TCU | 46c | 32,050$14,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,307 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6c…f991backed Cincinnati | 52c | 23,609$12,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,276.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x891f…6317backed TCU | 48c | 23,571$11,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,256.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaef7…d43abacked TCU | 48c | 23,345$11,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,139.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35ad…ba14backed Cincinnati | 52c | 23,312$12,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,122.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed TCU | 47c | 14,938$7,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,917 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed TCU | 46c | 4,600$2,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,484 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed TCU | 47c | 1,500$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed TCU | 46c | 1,463$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.81 | 213 | 48.8%104 W · 109 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…8af2backed TCU | 47c | 1,100$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked TCU | 47c | 1,080$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.39 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed TCU | 45c | 605.74$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.14 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc034…3ff7backed TCU | 46c | 426.07$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.08 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed TCU | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.53 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed TCU | 46c | 220$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.8 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb36…1c00backed TCU | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked TCU | 47c | 159.57$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.57 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed TCU | 46c | 152.17$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.17 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed TCU | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Cincinnati | 51c | 122.45$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.45 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed TCU | 47c | 72.66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.51 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…598dbacked TCU | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked TCU | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Cincinnati | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: TCU (-3.5)this page
- Cincinnati vs. TCUTCU won
- Cincinnati vs. TCU: O/U 56.5Over won
- Cincinnati vs. TCU: O/U 57.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.