College Football · resolved market
Cincinnati vs. TCU
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1eda1012b4e229012a3cd82d9c5f687d01a4f36db32647505451324f55237e19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- TCUof Cincinnati, TCU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $117,117
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $137,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,117 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2cb4…f28cbacked Cincinnati | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed TCU | 61c | 20,000$12,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,800 | 272 | 46%125 W · 147 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Cincinnati | 37c | 19,197$7,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,141.38 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Cincinnati | 37c | 10,000$3,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,750 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed TCU | 59c | 6,492$3,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,661.63 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Cincinnati | 41c | 5,000$2,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,050 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9e…eddcbacked Cincinnati | 15c | 4,521$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d9…f5b1backed TCU | 60c | 4,370$2,622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,747.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x266b…a499backed Cincinnati | 40c | 4,365$1,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,745.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed TCU | 62c | 3,751$2,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,412.1 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Cincinnati | 39c | 2,373$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.65 | 213 | 48.8%104 W · 109 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Cincinnati | 35c | 1,500$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 134 | 17.2%23 W · 111 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed TCU | 63c | 1,366$857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.92 | 205 | 53.7%110 W · 95 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Cincinnati | 9c | 1,291$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.19 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed Cincinnati | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3458…b5a7backed TCU | 72c | 973.99$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.99 | 106 | 64.2%68 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a4…caf5backed Cincinnati | 9c | 947.32$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.53 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f44…bc79backed Cincinnati | 2c | 669.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeaa…2279backed Cincinnati | 39c | 640$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd40…73a2backed Cincinnati | 41c | 609.76$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 112 | 21.4%24 W · 88 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ab…ded1backed Cincinnati | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Cincinnati | 40c | 495.41$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.16 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Cincinnati | 40c | 475.51$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.21 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed TCU | 63c | 275$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20e4…b96fbacked Cincinnati | 23c | 267.22$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.46 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed TCU | 73c | 239.87$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…2d78backed TCU | 61c | 230$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked TCU | 62c | 225.31$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.79 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked TCU | 64c | 223$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.71 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cd…e418backed TCU | 61c | 210$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…d028backed Cincinnati | 44c | 208.77$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.86 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa299…139abacked TCU | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…3e58backed Cincinnati | 41c | 195.12$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3214…63d6backed Cincinnati | 19c | 184.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -6.4wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Cincinnati | 41c | 182.93$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed TCU | 62c | 176.87$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.21 | 216 | 44.9%97 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda53…9209backed TCU | 59c | 175.12$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.8 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a51…bde9backed TCU | 60c | 166.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8512…2ee1backed Cincinnati | 38c | 166.68$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked TCU | 57c | 164.45$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.72 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…e0cbbacked TCU | 62c | 161.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.94 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718b…90b8backed Cincinnati | 43c | 161.02$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbb…2466backed TCU | 59c | 161.02$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Cincinnati | 38c | 146.11$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.52 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…b3e8backed Cincinnati | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Cincinnati | 19c | 131.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Cincinnati | 15c | 130.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 269 | 39.8%107 W · 162 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb3…f766backed TCU | 60c | 123.16$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.26 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d3…4908backed Cincinnati | 18c | 112.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed TCU | 59c | 107.09$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.47 | 284 | 40.8%116 W · 168 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb15e…5111backed Cincinnati | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Cincinnati | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 102 | 42.2%43 W · 59 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf9…66dcbacked Cincinnati | 42c | 97.48$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cb…d096backed Cincinnati | 16c | 93.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 139 | 33.1%46 W · 93 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Cincinnati | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc862…755fbacked TCU | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f0…8b02backed TCU | 68c | 58.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 35 | 74.3%26 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e3…39f0backed Cincinnati | 40c | 52.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 402 | 44.8%180 W · 222 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9334…32dabacked TCU | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 188 | 68.1%128 W · 60 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x446e…3042backed Cincinnati | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x114a…8aa2backed TCU | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Cincinnati | 36c | 49.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked TCU | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e74…d044backed TCU | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd18b…300cbacked Cincinnati | 39c | 36.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Cincinnati | 40c | 32.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d23…b55bbacked TCU | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31b…e34dbacked TCU | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Cincinnati | 40c | 30.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…7879backed TCU | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x746a…03ffbacked Cincinnati | 41c | 29.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c9…cca9backed TCU | 61c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd474…521dbacked Cincinnati | 39c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc422…71d8backed Cincinnati | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16fa…18b3backed TCU | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5f…afbfbacked TCU | 62c | 22.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe51a…5c4cbacked TCU | 62c | 22.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed TCU | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…4592backed TCU | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b0…f883backed TCU | 62c | 17.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x311b…b455backed TCU | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati vs. TCUthis page
- Cincinnati vs. TCU: O/U 56.5Over won
- Cincinnati vs. TCU: O/U 57.5Over won
- Spread: TCU (-3.5)TCU won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.