Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x294b20e25aaa4fe8c0697c3a774b63cb1fc7de537717e95642b1e27a07481a6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,296
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,154
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,296 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd5d…05f7backed No | 74c | 708.23$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.73 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 30c | 471.33$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Yes | 53c | 447.62$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.22 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…da26backed Yes | 13c | 311.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…b04abacked Yes | 26c | 248.19$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.68 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 41c | 239.77$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.26 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 239.13$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 70c | 238$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.21 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 237.07$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.07 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 33c | 234.27$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.21 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 220$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.2 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 13c | 178.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 29c | 172.79$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.71 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 152.24$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 54c | 147.53$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.4 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 46c | 111.9$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.98 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 111.23$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.94 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 107.41$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.46 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed Yes | 37c | 102$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 58c | 101.62$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 15c | 100.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 88.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 86.9$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 21c | 85.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 57c | 77.47$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38aa…53a6backed Yes | 13c | 76.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb7…2f0fbacked Yes | 44c | 75.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 15c | 74.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 36c | 73.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 58c | 68.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 58c | 67.38$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ea…f872backed Yes | 39c | 66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 60c | 57.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…f17cbacked Yes | 23c | 57.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 30c | 53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked Yes | 38c | 51.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 34c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f28…2cefbacked No | 69c | 41.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 36c | 41.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 74c | 37.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 32c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 65c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 43c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 67c | 35.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 58c | 34.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 27.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 65c | 26.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 55c | 26.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 44c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4784…2f0cbacked Yes | 44c | 24.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 67cpaid | -40%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 50c | 23.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x608a…966bbacked No | 69c | 20.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 78c | 15.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on May 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C or higher on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.