Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x924f7a345693de23ce67865b8f25e611311fb50a44540b7a8c235ab91d6e3037
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 60c | 316.11$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.11 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 31c | 282.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.48 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 257.94$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.47 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 69c | 225.91$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.4 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 218.81$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.86 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 67c | 211.65$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.83 | 2,299 | 17.8%409 W · 1,890 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 46c | 210.4$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.92 | 3,050 | 40.5%1,235 W · 1,815 L | -121.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 30c | 206.93$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.6 | 876 | 24.2%212 W · 664 L | -39.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 30c | 205.58$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.16 | 470 | 33.6%158 W · 312 L | +23.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 30c | 165.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.16 | 4,505 | 19.6%882 W · 3,623 L | +47.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Yes | 50c | 131.65$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.53 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 130$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.3 | 4,616 | 58.3%2,689 W · 1,927 L | -114.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…da26backed Yes | 33c | 115.46$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.11 | 127 | 33.1%42 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 38c | 114.31$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 109.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.54 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…b04abacked Yes | 71c | 104.9$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3288…b8cebacked Yes | 31c | 93.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.51 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 14c | 90.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 86.9$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.77 | 5,795 | 60%3,479 W · 2,316 L | -110.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 47c | 86$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 3,821 | 61.1%2,336 W · 1,485 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 52c | 80.53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 79.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.79 | 3,980 | 47.3%1,884 W · 2,096 L | +71.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…6f5fbacked Yes | 42c | 70.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c000backed Yes | 29c | 67.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.97 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 73c | 63.28$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked Yes | 32c | 63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 30c | 62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 36c | 57.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 71c | 54.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 467 | 67.5%315 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +333.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 72c | 53.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 913 | 73.3%669 W · 244 L | +20.8wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 31c | 52.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 50.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 4,905 | 53.4%2,621 W · 2,284 L | +33.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 76c | 49.78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 2,211 | 55.9%1,236 W · 975 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 71c | 49.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…3bcabacked Yes | 28c | 44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 68c | 43.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 28c | 43.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 29c | 43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 546 | 27.1%148 W · 398 L | -64.8wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 69c | 43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 24c | 42.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 831 | 42.6%354 W · 477 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2832…f488backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 66cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 47c | 39.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 32c | 38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 56c | 35.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcf93…7283backed No | 72c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 48c | 33.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb7…2f0fbacked Yes | 55c | 32.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 70c | 32.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 32.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 69c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 56c | 30.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…ba19backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…58b3backed No | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 67c | 29.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x608a…966bbacked No | 50c | 29.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 48c | 28.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1,919 | 62.8%1,205 W · 714 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 73c | 23.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6469…a047backed Yes | 61c | 22.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 22.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 5,201 | 49.9%2,595 W · 2,606 L | -161.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 53c | 21.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 370 | 67.6%250 W · 120 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,300 | 54.2%704 W · 596 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 70c | 18.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 67c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 2,193 | 57%1,249 W · 944 L | +68.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a2…2c18backed No | 73c | 16.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb986…dbadbacked Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C or higher on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.