South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Atlético San Luis end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2963cfdd2b084d8756b3ff69fa0608d30edb57435977716fdf71e93e163bae7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,753
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,753 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 80c | 4,552$3,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,632.55 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 19c | 2,038$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,656.03 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked No | 38c | 1,838$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.11 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccb3…2eadbacked Yes | 7c | 1,131$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +224.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 21c | 951.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e6…b9f9backed Yes | 24c | 836.15$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.47 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 74c | 741.47$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.42 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 12c | 719.97$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.88 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 19c | 518.82$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.67 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed No | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +240.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78fc…8c88backed Yes | 9c | 456.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +341.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe50…618abacked Yes | 11c | 400$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +176.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5f…3492backed Yes | 73c | 281.43$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 18c | 252$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.95 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 37c | 164.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.9 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 23c | 160.87$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.87 | 187 | 33.2%62 W · 125 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 220 | 49.1%108 W · 112 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 13c | 155.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.38 | 138 | 14.5%20 W · 118 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 17c | 149.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.93 | 312 | 26.6%83 W · 229 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 17c | 142.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.91 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 18c | 138$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa69c…890ebacked Yes | 23c | 132.96$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.38 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba2d…2f32backed No | 21c | 126.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed No | 23c | 112.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 18c | 105.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.56 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 39c | 95.13$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe868…7c4fbacked Yes | 23c | 88.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.48 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Yes | 65c | 75.6$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 363 | 39.9%145 W · 218 L | -16.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 17c | 60.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 80c | 60$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 162 | 66%107 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2116…eb8fbacked No | 31c | 44.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 20cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x278f…5c17backed No | 31c | 41.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 67c | 40.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0172…3858backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed No | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 134 | 41%55 W · 79 L | -14.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb651…4a7cbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0c…a98fbacked No | 79c | 29.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dda…8799backed No | 71c | 28.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab7e…b5d1backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed Yes | 56c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 293 | 62.5%183 W · 110 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Yes | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 246 | 65.9%162 W · 84 L | +26.2wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Atlético San Luis end in a draw?this page
- Will Atlético San Luis win on 2026-04-12?No won
- Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-04-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.