Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Valentin Royer vs Bu Yunchaokete
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29747e40106727533ecfd5a1ead7b718052d10ace6cfea1a7f8316eab4e43307
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Royerof Royer, Yunchaokete
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,864
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,480
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,864 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Yunchaokete | 23c | 6,270$1,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,433.21 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yunchaokete | 1c | 5,614$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Royer | 69c | 4,363$3,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,333.56 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Yunchaokete | 26c | 4,066$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.67 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…a880backed Royer | 40c | 1,300$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.91 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Royer | 80c | 1,092$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.37 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Yunchaokete | 61c | 782.05$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.05 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Yunchaokete | 60c | 541$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.6 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Royer | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Yunchaokete | 61c | 290.77$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.37 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Yunchaokete | 59c | 259.11$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.27 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Royer | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Royer | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cdc…7cddbacked Royer | 39c | 205.13$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.13 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.18per pick | 34cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf950…81d1backed Yunchaokete | 17c | 161.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb1…1208backed Royer | 71c | 140.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Yunchaokete | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Royer | 40c | 87.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.58 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Royer | 74c | 76.36$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x900b…34bcbacked Royer | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +62%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Yunchaokete | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Royer | 72c | 60.72$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Royer | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 512 | 43%220 W · 292 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Royer | 40c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.