Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x298d59f703a1b7aa9b1a2b3d2c5bdeeb3bb6e7e35c7e9e82a8099a8a33104621
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,206 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 13c | 386.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3116…d684backed Yes | 48c | 343.38$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.84 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 59c | 306.42$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.19 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 26c | 296.5$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.29 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 261.52$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 19c | 215.59$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.57 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 35c | 212.79$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.15 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 5c | 200.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 27c | 180.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.01 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 172.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.64 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 65c | 145.93$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 31c | 135.67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.25 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 73c | 119.04$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.56 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 66c | 111.65$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.59 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a9…d0e4backed Yes | 67c | 101.01$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.34 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 99.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.03 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 67c | 96.26$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.47 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…c4c5backed No | 70c | 93.42$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.51 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 65c | 91.52$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.24 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 59c | 89.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.42 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 33c | 89.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.06 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 30c | 72.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.87 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 59c | 69.07$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 66.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.05 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb070…5726backed Yes | 61c | 65.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ca…ad5dbacked Yes | 32c | 62.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40c0…7e64backed Yes | 29c | 56.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +245.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…260cbacked Yes | 46c | 55.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc18…0a2abacked No | 64c | 54.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 76c | 52.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5b…e747backed Yes | 30c | 51.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x540f…4bf4backed No | 69c | 51.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 39c | 51.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 32c | 49.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 69c | 49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17f3…769bbacked No | 68c | 46.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x174c…4351backed Yes | 32c | 44.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 70c | 42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd9…5b04backed No | 70c | 41.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -4.6wins | -0.26per pick | 70cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 29c | 41.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes | 43c | 40.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 27c | 38.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b9…b47fbacked No | 65c | 38.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 40c | 37.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked Yes | 40c | 37.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…e49fbacked Yes | 35c | 34.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 73c | 34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 32c | 34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…78c9backed No | 69c | 32.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…bf5cbacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb473…6931backed No | 66c | 29.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb5…b3cfbacked No | 69c | 28.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 70c | 28.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca2…1981backed No | 75c | 26.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 64c | 26.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11dc…fac5backed Yes | 43c | 25.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…8d1fbacked Yes | 51c | 25.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 49c | 24.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed No | 62c | 22.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb2…14d6backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 76c | 18.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5be4…3128backed No | 71c | 18.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…1994backed No | 62c | 18.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed No | 65c | 16.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41d0…a837backed No | 70c | 14.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 75°F or below on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on March 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.