Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c2391ee1e6fa8795a60c111db09f062cd5d3ff15b06a268f86e5b1e9bd21090
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,364 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 4c | 1,052$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.78 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 2c | 494.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 326.47$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.17 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 16c | 309.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes | 35c | 300$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.97 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 13c | 296.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b7…9f11backed Yes | 21c | 270.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.91 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed Yes | 27c | 228.34$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.56 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 13c | 226.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 14c | 225.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 74c | 212.36$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.88 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 24c | 207.39$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.55 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 16c | 201.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 10c | 183.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3116…d684backed Yes | 28c | 176.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 173$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked Yes | 30c | 146.26$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 71c | 141.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 10c | 140.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 23c | 134.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 133.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 26c | 128$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 26c | 123.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 77c | 117.07$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 24c | 114.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 113.65$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb65…cf36backed Yes | 17c | 112.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 111.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 68c | 110.92$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…8776backed Yes | 25c | 108.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 76c | 104.28$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…e7d4backed Yes | 28c | 101.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 15c | 99.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…a5cabacked Yes | 30c | 83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e61…eaeebacked Yes | 21c | 80.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 27c | 74.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 24c | 72.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 27c | 70.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7a…957ebacked Yes | 32c | 67.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88e6…8311backed Yes | 20c | 60.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 73c | 56.86$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd9…5b04backed No | 77c | 53.63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -4.6wins | -0.26per pick | 70cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7591…4e68backed Yes | 20c | 51.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa74c…a7a4backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8394…8d66backed Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 77c | 47.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a9…7e7bbacked Yes | 25c | 43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17f3…769bbacked No | 76c | 42.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…8d1fbacked No | 70c | 41.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 77c | 40.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11dc…fac5backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb070…5726backed No | 78c | 32.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 78c | 32.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf618…6a90backed No | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 80c | 29.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 71c | 29.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed No | 69c | 29.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 72c | 25.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 80c | 25.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 79c | 24.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 78c | 22.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 80c | 21.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6af…fc2fbacked No | 70c | 21.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 18.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd05…0e6ebacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5c…1d38backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 75°F or below on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on March 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on March 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.