Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
St. Bonaventure Bonnies vs. Dayton Flyers: O/U 146.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29920cb70134af7dc4eed11f5c848874283391add19e5d075b1586ba7efcffa2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,598
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,616
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,598 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2537…bff9backed Under | 55c | 53,195$29,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,960.01 | 444 | 52.7%234 W · 210 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 20,723$9,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,342.56 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe248…f293backed Over | 45c | 17,500$7,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,875 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +38.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7e…0f7abacked Over | 48c | 4,821$2,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,314.28 | 232 | 48.3%112 W · 120 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Over | 46c | 3,024$1,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,391.25 | 558 | 40.3%225 W · 333 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 44c | 2,554$1,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,115.63 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…8441backed Over | 42c | 1,427$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.72 | 422 | 46.2%195 W · 227 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x498c…42bfbacked Under | 55c | 1,300$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.91 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50f…3ad3backed Over | 43c | 1,163$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 44c | 752$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.5 | 1,074 | 47%505 W · 569 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15f9…607ebacked Over | 45c | 525$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.25 | 321 | 46.7%150 W · 171 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 44c | 509$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.96 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 58c | 482.16$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.82 | 974 | 47.9%467 W · 507 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 44c | 400$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 45c | 351.32$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.4 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…06acbacked Under | 56c | 261.42$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.72 | 273 | 50.5%138 W · 135 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Over | 48c | 246.1$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.13 | 693 | 50.4%349 W · 344 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 46c | 241.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 624 | 51.1%319 W · 305 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…48dfbacked Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Over | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 294 | 42.9%126 W · 168 L | -11.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8126…9d18backed Under | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb0…3182backed Over | 47c | 175$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.25 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…3e29backed Over | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 283 | 54.1%153 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Over | 42c | 88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 237 | 54.4%129 W · 108 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Under | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 627 | 53%332 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…c356backed Over | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Over | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 498 | 49.6%247 W · 251 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d21…08d3backed Over | 44c | 59.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8e…22c3backed Over | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b14…13dcbacked Over | 44c | 57.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 198 | 51.5%102 W · 96 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Over | 41c | 36.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Over | 41c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Over | 44c | 29.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 423 | 39.2%166 W · 257 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6677…575cbacked Under | 53c | 23.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5b…6e14backed Under | 55c | 22.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Bonaventure Bonnies vs. Dayton Flyers: O/U 146.5this page
- Spread: Dayton Flyers (-8.5)St. Bonaventure Bonnies won
- St. Bonaventure Bonnies vs. Dayton FlyersDayton Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.