NBA · resolved market
Spread: Magic (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29b55d20480cab16397d7ffc48db1c8cf3b15cb7661f6a4906118c05da987748
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Magic, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,140
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Pelicans | 50c | 27,628$13,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,707.32 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Magic | 50c | 22,016$11,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,972.08 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Magic | 51c | 16,435$8,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,016.3 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pelicans | 49c | 4,863$2,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,395.98 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa216…179bbacked Pelicans | 49c | 2,469$1,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210.02 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pelicans | 49c | 1,312$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.17 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Pelicans | 47c | 940$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.9 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Pelicans | 50c | 752$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1209…fa75backed Pelicans | 47c | 361.7$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…37e8backed Pelicans | 46c | 263.04$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -20.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Pelicans | 49c | 184.18$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.52 | 388 | 53.4%207 W · 181 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5340…5e2bbacked Pelicans | 51c | 164.33$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Pelicans | 49c | 153.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…cc97backed Magic | 56c | 80.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Pelicans | 46c | 71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pelicans | 47c | 47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x694f…68efbacked Magic | 53c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…3be8backed Magic | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Magic (-6.5)this page
- Pelicans vs. MagicMagic won
- Pelicans vs. Magic: O/U 229.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.