Olympics · resolved market

Will Julia Simon (FRA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Women's 12.5km Mass Start at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29cd61b6563d4498a4fe17b14609377fa7888496f77ff2de8d9d6dbf06197a6e

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 21, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $3,401
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $3,583

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,401 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Olympics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x588d…099abacked No	79c	861.85$679 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$183.31	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Yes	25c	553.72$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.43	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a0…c18cbacked No	72c	319.1$231 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.88	14	71.4%10 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	67cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb38c…b2c9backed Yes	20c	305$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	47	36.2%17 W · 30 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6497…4b86backed Yes	20c	250$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-2.3wins	-0.38per pick	38cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd246…fec7backed Yes	25c	170$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.9	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-10%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8492…f17cbacked Yes	23c	152.72$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd277…73febacked Yes	20c	145.17$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	0%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6149…8a58backed No	79c	122.79$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.3	52	42.3%22 W · 30 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7257…fc40backed Yes	16c	122.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.93	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	-2.8wins	-0.10per pick	27cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes	16c	113$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.41	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.10per pick	24cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f2d…6dc8backed Yes	20c	90$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.6wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a68…6679backed Yes	73c	89$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.98	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.09per pick	39cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa661…af49backed Yes	16c	77.5$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.4	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	-23%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x454c…bd22backed No	55c	55$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.75	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+3.3wins	+0.24per pick	41cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	59+0.09 edge/pick
0xaa6b…9183backed Yes	22c	46.82$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.3	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507a…be1fbacked No	77c	46.35$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.51	16	68.8%11 W · 5 L	+1.7wins	+0.10per pick	58cpaid	+22.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x40a7…ecb7backed No	72c	44.64$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.44	34	67.6%23 W · 11 L	+3.0wins	+0.09per pick	59cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No	64c	17$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.12	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Julia Simon (FRA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Women's 12.5km Mass Start at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event