Olympics · resolved market

Will Lou Jeanmonnot (FRA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Women's 12.5km Mass Start at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e2a3add95332be1d900bf0d47cfbc612a2b966c64e048f3987cc080dd0bdcf4

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 21, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $4,735
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $4,951

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,735 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Olympics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6884…517cbacked Yes	31c	706.5$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.04	47	46.8%22 W · 25 L	+2.8wins	+0.06per pick	41cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7e4…7310backed Yes	28c	472.78$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Yes	30c	445.65$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.7	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6149…8a58backed No	71c	420.64$297 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$123.14	52	42.3%22 W · 30 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x41f0…3eebbacked No	66c	380.26$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$129.93	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	-12%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6497…4b86backed Yes	27c	375.15$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-2.3wins	-0.38per pick	38cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked No	76c	351.81$268 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$83.68	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No	73c	207.41$151 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56	51	51%26 W · 25 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x22ae…af00backed Yes	26c	200$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd246…fec7backed Yes	29c	160$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-10%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40a7…ecb7backed No	60c	160$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.92	34	67.6%23 W · 11 L	+3.0wins	+0.09per pick	59cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x094a…e4a9backed No	67c	130.71$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.6	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.08per pick	59cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a08…2e25backed Yes	45c	115$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.75	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x920b…cbabbacked Yes	44c	113.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed No	72c	110.4$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.05	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x154e…911fbacked No	75c	100$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	27	66.7%18 W · 9 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	65cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5672…d3dabacked Yes	27c	92.59$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f2d…6dc8backed Yes	28c	89.29$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.6wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b62…8fe5backed Yes	47c	84.46$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	-3.3wins	-0.11per pick	27cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked No	73c	84.3$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.76	69	42%29 W · 40 L	+7.2wins	+0.10per pick	32cpaid	+42.7%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x454c…bd22backed No	52c	72.8$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.25	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+3.3wins	+0.24per pick	41cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	59+0.09 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	25c	70$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.57	244	8.2%20 W · 224 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-61.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe85f…7f69backed Yes	28c	64.29$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	34cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x312d…6814backed No	79c	60.67$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.74	18	66.7%12 W · 6 L	+2.2wins	+0.12per pick	54cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8116…b2a8backed No	79c	48.04$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.03	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb835…2e51backed No	80c	46.25$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.25	5	60%3 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	60cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3ba…33b9backed No	79c	40$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.4	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.2wins	-0.24per pick	44cpaid	-74.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bec…5311backed Yes	30c	40$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.13per pick	54cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x507a…be1fbacked No	57c	27.73$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.8	16	68.8%11 W · 5 L	+1.7wins	+0.10per pick	58cpaid	+22.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51f7…ae1fbacked No	70c	21.49$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.45	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.2wins	+0.15per pick	60cpaid	+44.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No	71c	15.99$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.64	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Lou Jeanmonnot (FRA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Biathlon - Women's 12.5km Mass Start at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event