Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29d84ecbf7145f20861cf4be5e3a5e206ec80c2c598c3aeb08c7ebe0be9be580
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7bb9…44cfbacked Yes | 15c | 885$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.58 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…eb3dbacked Yes | 14c | 549.72$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.6 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Yes | 17c | 537.79$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.33 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 3c | 516.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 7c | 459.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 4c | 389.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 8c | 272.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 6c | 250$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3859…6903backed Yes | 19c | 210.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 13c | 200.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 10c | 192.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5692…7236backed Yes | 15c | 181.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 6c | 178.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 7c | 175.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 168.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5194…1dcabacked Yes | 15c | 135.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b13…6e6abacked Yes | 13c | 133.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 16c | 131.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 126$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes | 11c | 114.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 167 | 9%15 W · 152 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 12c | 86.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01f3…ce32backed Yes | 16c | 79.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…88e2backed Yes | 17c | 61.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 77c | 23.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…263dbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 73°F or below on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 92°F or higher on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.