Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa25196ee82e093e5ac56345cdb8dc2c8eb023b28eafb869c747dd10772d8611a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,842
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,942
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,842 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 5c | 1,676$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.29 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 5c | 747.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 18c | 568.89$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.78 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 536.65$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 384$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.72 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 19c | 340.81$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.67 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 16c | 306.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 15c | 299.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…eb3dbacked Yes | 15c | 276.63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3859…6903backed Yes | 24c | 231.18$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 9c | 149.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 19c | 147.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x610b…e158backed Yes | 18c | 140.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 12c | 139.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 136.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9855…8190backed Yes | 23c | 122.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 11c | 105$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…88e2backed Yes | 20c | 79.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa3…a5c8backed Yes | 21c | 75.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…ff74backed Yes | 16c | 74.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fd…59aebacked Yes | 15c | 71.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 24c | 69.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf357…10b6backed Yes | 26c | 67.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f55…4213backed Yes | 17c | 61.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 73c | 31.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 27.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed No | 75c | 25.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 74c | 19.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37d3…4e40backed No | 79c | 18.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed No | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 73°F or below on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 92°F or higher on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.