Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b6d534a883aaeafea5f900decb185de0e617ab4c2efc4ac106fd97fbac906f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,259
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,178
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,259 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 1c | 2,264$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9715…6f82backed Yes | 23c | 406.36$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.59 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed No | 79c | 377.58$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.58 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 28c | 343.11$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.23 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 324.25$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 312.46$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7f…a955backed No | 74c | 289.99$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.64 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 28c | 264.03$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.23 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3859…6903backed Yes | 24c | 231.18$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 23c | 225.3$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.82 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 78c | 220.25$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.23 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked No | 73c | 212.01$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.95 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 197.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.93 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 24c | 193.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 14c | 185.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 183.92$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb9…44cfbacked Yes | 36c | 179.57$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.07 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 27c | 161.73$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.28 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 28c | 155$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 27c | 149.24$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 147.85$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 24c | 140.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…88e2backed Yes | 32c | 135.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked No | 72c | 134.89$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 21c | 120.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 25c | 117.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 76c | 114.52$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 17c | 108.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 24c | 108.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 24c | 107.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 79c | 105.2$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 23c | 103.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 29c | 94.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa654…58c9backed Yes | 33c | 91.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 23c | 89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 17c | 86.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 22c | 85.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed Yes | 26c | 84.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 24c | 84.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 83.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 31c | 80.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 17c | 76.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 16c | 75.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…9b4ebacked Yes | 34c | 74.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…2cbebacked Yes | 25c | 70.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 29c | 68.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5194…1dcabacked Yes | 27c | 67.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked No | 67c | 66.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 18c | 65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee7a…b68dbacked Yes | 31c | 64.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 75c | 64.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 28c | 62.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 29c | 58.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf357…10b6backed Yes | 22c | 56.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 55.63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3b…b989backed Yes | 31c | 54.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37d3…4e40backed Yes | 32c | 54.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 38c | 53.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 50.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3c55…a735backed Yes | 32c | 50.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe573…ae05backed Yes | 30c | 50.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 25c | 49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 27c | 47.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 27c | 47.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 27c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes | 27c | 44.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 167 | 9%15 W · 152 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…c4c5backed Yes | 27c | 41.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…e96abacked No | 80c | 37.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…17babacked No | 68c | 33.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 77c | 32.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d5…4055backed No | 73c | 30.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ea…266abacked No | 68c | 29.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25f8…b58dbacked No | 72c | 26.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…ff74backed No | 73c | 21.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 21.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9245…2005backed No | 73c | 21.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca9…8952backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f6…f045backed No | 76c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 35 | 80%28 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9f…b4e1backed No | 72c | 19.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 18.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 71c | 17.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a09…263dbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 73°F or below on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 92°F or higher on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.