TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,259
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,178

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,259 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes1c2,264$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4216832.7%55 W · 113 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9715…6f82backed Yes23c406.36$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.595440.7%22 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+110.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1be…6471backed No79c377.58$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.588861.4%54 W · 34 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x938d…8674backed Yes28c343.11$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.2346733.4%156 W · 311 L+21.4wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes22c324.25$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.3117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes18c312.46$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.66,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a7f…a955backed No74c289.99$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.64771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes28c264.03$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.231,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3859…6903backed Yes24c231.18$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.481833.3%6 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+40.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c82…f315backed Yes23c225.3$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8213930.2%42 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No78c220.25$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.2386050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a18…364cbacked No73c212.01$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.958946.1%41 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes22c197.83$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.938,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes24c193.29$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.881,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked Yes14c185.18$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9362555.2%345 W · 280 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No71c183.92$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.554,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bb9…44cfbacked Yes36c179.57$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.07825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa717…faeabacked Yes27c161.73$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2831170.7%220 W · 91 L+42.3wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+30.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes28c155$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.861,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes27c149.24$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6732444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No77c147.85$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.81,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes24c140.01$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.331442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x305d…88e2backed Yes32c135.88$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.155736.8%21 W · 36 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xea74…2fadbacked No72c134.89$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.312068.3%82 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick67cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes21c120.77$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.91,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes25c117.78$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.811,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed No76c114.52$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8399949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes17c108.9$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.791,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes24c108.55$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.81,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes24c107.33$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2432818.3%60 W · 268 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed No79c105.2$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.2152245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes23c103.15$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0476924.3%187 W · 582 L-16.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3319…977abacked Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1526426.9%71 W · 193 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes29c94.7$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.361,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa654…58c9backed Yes33c91.4$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305343.4%23 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90c5…fb31backed Yes23c89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1116944.4%75 W · 94 L+18.5wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+32.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes17c86.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.521,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes22c85.39$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7911425.4%29 W · 85 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+25.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x105c…1011backed Yes26c84.6$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9911220.5%23 W · 89 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick24cpaid+7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd637…7617backed Yes24c84.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9813533.3%45 W · 90 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes24c83.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.747,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes31c80.77$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2533450.6%169 W · 165 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes17c76.58$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.262,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46b3…d3debacked Yes16c75.79$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4824414.3%35 W · 209 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9735…9b4ebacked Yes34c74.03$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254961.2%30 W · 19 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f8a…2cbebacked Yes25c70.04$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.212142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+16.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes29c68.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2086847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5194…1dcabacked Yes27c67.34$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.34336.1%2 W · 31 L-4.3wins-0.13per pick19cpaid-73.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe689…159fbacked No67c66.67$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2220342.9%87 W · 116 L+20.8wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+55.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes18c65$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5549547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee7a…b68dbacked Yes31c64.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203831.6%12 W · 26 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d84…4ff1backed No75c64.38$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7829558%171 W · 124 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes28c62.82$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.652419.5%23 W · 218 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes29c58.98$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8933243.1%143 W · 189 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf357…10b6backed Yes22c56.28$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.231435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No66c55.63$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e3b…b989backed Yes31c54.93$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.035950.8%30 W · 29 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37d3…4e40backed Yes32c54.29$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.155058%29 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes38c53.97$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5216144.1%71 W · 90 L+14.3wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+36.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes24c50.83$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x3c55…a735backed Yes32c50.62$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.240%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe573…ae05backed Yes30c50.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154637%17 W · 29 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.524046.7%112 W · 128 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes25c49$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.321,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x81ab…5f31backed Yes27c47.69$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0928946.4%134 W · 155 L-14.6wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x58a4…7456backed Yes27c47.09$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5623022.6%52 W · 178 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes27c45$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9795933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes27c44.87$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.151679%15 W · 152 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda7b…3c9fbacked No70c42.86$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8612567.2%84 W · 41 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4107…c4c5backed Yes27c41.35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.346642.4%28 W · 38 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x713b…e96abacked No80c37.98$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.61471.4%10 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick74cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b0e…17babacked No68c33.49$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.72250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No77c32.39$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.391,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1d5…4055backed No73c30.66$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8ea…266abacked No68c29.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.33728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick51cpaid-56%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x25f8…b58dbacked No72c26.57$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8941…83d7backed No75c24$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616366.3%108 W · 55 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x805a…ff74backed No73c21.9$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.815255.8%29 W · 23 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-19.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13f3…d427backed No70c21.51$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4532669%225 W · 101 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9245…2005backed No73c21.18$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.722100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+37.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeca9…8952backed No76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.835062%31 W · 19 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick69cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8f6…f045backed No76c19.73$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.743580%28 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick75cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc9f…b4e1backed No72c19.71$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.597153.5%38 W · 33 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No78c18.62$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.172,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No71c17.17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9876371.4%545 W · 218 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a09…263dbacked No80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.57057.1%40 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.