Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f16708b10951a576f2179d3246729dc7053618bb39fe111bb8536d2639ace01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,196
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,178
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,196 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9715…6f82backed Yes | 68c | 2,370$1,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.69 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 12c | 706.17$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.08 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda65…c7aebacked No | 34c | 638.73$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.84 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 56c | 635.97$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.66 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 56c | 358.6$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.95 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 336.1$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.08 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…0a64backed Yes | 71c | 275.83$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.98 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 31c | 275$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9855…8190backed Yes | 29c | 258$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.18 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…88e2backed Yes | 61c | 237.72$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.36 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.48 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6f…f0f0backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 67c | 197.39$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.7 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 48c | 195.67$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.01 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 34c | 192.98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.31 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…e203backed Yes | 33c | 170.63$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.76 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 32c | 168.13$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.89 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Yes | 34c | 154.54$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 55c | 150.1$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.17 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 45c | 142.38$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.54 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 40c | 126.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.27 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc472…b96cbacked No | 59c | 126.06$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.01 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -12.2wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 67c | 119.36$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.59 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 118.37$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 49c | 117.67$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.03 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 52c | 109.97$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.77 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 100.93$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.44 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.51 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…2155backed Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.99 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3b…b989backed Yes | 33c | 95.32$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.26 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 66c | 93.93$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.18 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 18c | 83.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.32 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 35c | 79.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.58 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 79.02$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.08 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.28 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 63c | 78.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 67c | 73.06$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 70c | 71.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37d3…4e40backed Yes | 65c | 69.05$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 59c | 66.14$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 35c | 65.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 26c | 65.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.15 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…2cbebacked No | 56c | 65.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 42c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 32c | 54.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.22 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 34c | 51.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.27 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 46c | 50.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba5…fc9bbacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 58c | 49.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 34c | 49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…c4c5backed No | 58c | 48.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 69c | 46.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb3…803abacked Yes | 32c | 44.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 55c | 40.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9f…b4e1backed No | 69c | 36.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed No | 65c | 35.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 49c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 47c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 36c | 33.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 46c | 32.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 57c | 32.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 56c | 31.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 56c | 31.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked No | 54c | 26.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 66c | 25.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…bb03backed No | 66c | 25.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ef…b7fcbacked No | 62c | 24.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 41cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 67c | 23.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…ff74backed No | 55c | 23.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 65c | 23.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf833…0208backed No | 65c | 23.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.4wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x416e…7448backed No | 53c | 21.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef05…4d4ebacked Yes | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 58c | 21.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 66c | 17.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 74 | 70.3%52 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4160…5d74backed No | 68c | 16.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc18…0a2abacked No | 69c | 16.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 69c | 16.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 67c | 16.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…dfc9backed No | 65c | 15.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…cf4bbacked No | 72c | 13.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 73°F or below on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 92°F or higher on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.