Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29e67f30446d9d9a936c89ae5e253fefd0697fe08f459c828d08b35e4b602f4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ba5…2999backed Yes | 0c | 16,480$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6798…1bfdbacked Yes | 1c | 5,500$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -60%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 74c | 530.93$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.04 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 4c | 499.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 19c | 496.88$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.76 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 30c | 447.74$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.49 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 5c | 384.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 5c | 365$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 27c | 347.33$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.33 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 13c | 301.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x014f…ea08backed Yes | 38c | 200$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.17 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 7c | 192.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 30c | 188.17$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 73c | 185.38$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.37 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 19c | 165.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 159.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 26c | 150.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 66c | 149$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.93 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes | 34c | 138.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 131.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…d125backed Yes | 27c | 129$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 65c | 122.03$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed Yes | 27c | 111.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 18c | 88.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d4…f7dcbacked Yes | 15c | 85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa51c…7427backed Yes | 28c | 73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 61c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 73c | 68.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 26c | 65.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66aa…5203backed Yes | 42c | 64.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 27c | 64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 29c | 62.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 30c | 60.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 24c | 58.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 26c | 57.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 52.76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…4bc2backed No | 75c | 52.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 78c | 51.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 69c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 71c | 49.54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…6104backed Yes | 29c | 47.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a919backed Yes | 27c | 47.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 64c | 43.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 70c | 42.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 70c | 39.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 26c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 28c | 37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 29c | 34.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 34c | 32.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 78c | 30.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 76c | 27.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed No | 76c | 26.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 70c | 26.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd93…0051backed No | 78c | 25.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 70cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3d…2c18backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0b…7132backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 71c | 24.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 20.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…3c9cbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b8…d44cbacked No | 70c | 17.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 66c | 15.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 39°F or below on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 54°F or higher on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.