TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 6?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,939

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,939 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9e7f…44d4backed No20c2,057$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.7524966.7%166 W · 83 L+15.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No10c917.67$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.3159742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x46e7…f51ebacked No2c717.48$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9880%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes60c655.6$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.1232157.3%184 W · 137 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes64c620.5$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.6221436%77 W · 137 L+0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa96a…1377backed No64c610.46$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.4854143.6%236 W · 305 L-12.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked No4c386.62$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9518316.4%30 W · 153 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-14.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc99f…aeb1backed No3c366$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.663613.9%5 W · 31 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-74%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x78c3…7003backed No5c264.18$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.882544%11 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes34c240.91$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.5917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No16c206.77$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.141,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No18c203.57$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8986050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf01…79b6backed No45c187.09$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.468665.1%56 W · 30 L+6.7wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed Yes48c164.52$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.138840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No56c161.87$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.9891967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4635…6c48backed Yes64c156.46$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.466735.8%24 W · 43 L-7.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-31.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6077…8a56backed Yes79c152.31$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.3110956.9%62 W · 47 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed No20c148.94$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2752322.6%118 W · 405 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes34c143.59$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.138,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes38c135$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.181029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba0b…7132backed No17c93.58$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.452050%10 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed No42c89.97$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7952245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes34c84.29$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.6325029.2%73 W · 177 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x014b…243bbacked Yes37c80.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.563534.3%12 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes52c80$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.166950.7%35 W · 34 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x03d0…d647backed Yes79c74.32$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4710352.4%54 W · 49 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66aa…5203backed Yes52c72.4$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.755042%21 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-26.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x70f4…a54abacked Yes45c71.09$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.231631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a19…1e2ebacked No49c69.98$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2941767.9%283 W · 134 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes43c68.37$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.1926253.4%140 W · 122 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x449d…e576backed No55c66$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.181428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-53.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b7b…e799backed No23c65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.953577.1%27 W · 8 L+4.0wins+0.12per pick66cpaid+10.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes31c62.9$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.451,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x716d…42a7backed No27c62.19$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.81910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-84.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2205…8089backed No61c56.97$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3529056.2%163 W · 127 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6c8…d7c5backed Yes35c52.63$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2124149.8%120 W · 121 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe34…8ee7backed No65c52$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8916355.2%90 W · 73 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9c4…e119backed Yes45c51.65$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.418940.4%36 W · 53 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes37c48.57$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5721333.8%72 W · 141 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No37c47.12$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xb4f7…5a55backed Yes32c46.88$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.882441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+16.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No25c46.83$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7257232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No59c45.9$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.243,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe273…e74bbacked No49c45$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.852445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No58c44.7$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.897,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes56c44.15$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5798738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes75c43.63$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9166543.6%290 W · 375 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xade1…9040backed Yes46c43.39$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3933839.9%135 W · 203 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x531e…a7b3backed Yes48c41.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.365048%24 W · 26 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+18.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4262…d125backed No41c40.24$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.643946.2%18 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+19.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb608…881ebacked Yes50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2018842.6%80 W · 108 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa51c…7427backed Yes38c38$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.431442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes39c37$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.481,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No68c36.79$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e67…7bb5backed Yes74c36.23$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.591464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8d4…f7dcbacked Yes57c36$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.321250%6 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes39c35$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.235843.9%157 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes40c34.33$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.51,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d11…8959backed Yes34c33$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.811010%1 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick32cpaid-70.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8506…2a45backed Yes47c32.19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.192740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes57c31.84$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6933535.2%118 W · 217 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes49c30.55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5512230.3%37 W · 85 L-11.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-22.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb616…0086backed Yes38c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.616434.1%56 W · 108 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes35c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.566735.4%236 W · 431 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x600c…8bd4backed Yes65c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.56358.7%37 W · 26 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x095b…6f34backed Yes59c25.31$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.379447.9%45 W · 49 L+10.7wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+23.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes47c25.08$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2634067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbb5d…3961backed Yes57c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.79142.9%39 W · 52 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes47c24.29$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7921547.4%102 W · 113 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94e6…0a73backed Yes63c22.83$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.537841%32 W · 46 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebfc…46e8backed No67c22.06$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.796459.4%38 W · 26 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b22…8945backed No61c21.75$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3125341.5%105 W · 148 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid+27.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x24fe…3419backed Yes58c20.51$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6121235.8%76 W · 136 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x22be…ba43backed Yes51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.82982.8%24 W · 5 L+4.4wins+0.15per pick68cpaid+24.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2cc0…b5f2backed No63c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6513360.9%81 W · 52 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe211…c34fbacked Yes53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.454959.2%29 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x80c7…698cbacked Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4430…a0a8backed No52c19.1$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.011030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeccd…d100backed No56c18.85$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5813122.1%29 W · 102 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-38.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0b9…3377backed No56c18.02$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0914071.4%100 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick69cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No68c15.17$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3276371.4%545 W · 218 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x19f2…03afbacked Yes77c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.4966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ee5…4b64backed Yes78c13.7$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.961566.7%10 W · 5 L+3.3wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+65.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.