NHL · resolved market
Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29fc235929fee31ff7d5625554be55ea6940ac2e6086824224e80863d46e8d26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Canadiensof Canadiens, Blackhawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,116
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Canadiens | 39c | 4,910$1,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,984.54 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Blackhawks | 61c | 4,334$2,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,641.97 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Blackhawks | 63c | 1,146$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.63 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Canadiens | 37c | 910.5$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.62 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Blackhawks | 60c | 721$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.39 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Blackhawks | 58c | 555.17$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc9…58c7backed Canadiens | 42c | 477.76$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.1 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Canadiens | 37c | 300$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…e56abacked Blackhawks | 58c | 262.19$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.07 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Canadiens | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Blackhawks | 61c | 172.13$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Blackhawks | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 74 | 71.6%53 W · 21 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…dd30backed Canadiens | 39c | 150$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Blackhawks | 62c | 79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca6…9a97backed Canadiens | 42c | 74.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.31 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Canadiens | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 271 | 48.7%132 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Canadiens | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Blackhawks | 62c | 46.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9014…db4abacked Canadiens | 38c | 39.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f5…b664backed Canadiens | 41c | 37.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Blackhawks | 61c | 34.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc587…1adabacked Canadiens | 40c | 32.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +125.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Blackhawks | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Canadiens | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Canadiens | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 189 | 46%87 W · 102 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Blackhawks | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 197 | 45.2%89 W · 108 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Canadiens | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6c…9a1dbacked Blackhawks | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)this page
- Blackhawks vs. CanadiensCanadiens won
- Blackhawks vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.