Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a0b0909ee4cdd0acba7167f0c85f42246bca42f8d9d166a68064a9e2548dcb6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,455
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,468
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,455 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 56c | 262.98$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.24 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 34c | 206.71$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.06 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 31c | 164.83$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d9…c3cbbacked No | 64c | 155.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.18 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 57c | 132.66$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.57 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 31c | 122.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 66c | 112.24$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 37c | 99.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 66c | 90.23$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 47c | 89.6$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 55c | 85.57$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.51 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 54c | 75.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 66c | 74.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 55c | 56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 65c | 53.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 65c | 53.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 65c | 53.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 52.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 49c | 52.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 37c | 51.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 35c | 50.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 59c | 50.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ff…e4f0backed No | 76c | 50.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 32c | 49.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 61c | 46.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 66c | 35.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 43c | 35.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 67c | 33.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 43c | 30.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 30.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 44c | 27.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c8…317dbacked No | 70c | 22.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…35c9backed No | 68c | 21.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 65cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecab…5b8ebacked Yes | 63c | 18.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 69c | 15.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 63c | 15.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on July 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.