Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a0b3dd43cd74cecdadd5218e87652fa782594e9df49ae0d525dedd4a734e442
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,884
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,108
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,884 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd28e…c236backed Yes | 75c | 1,205$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.01 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,074$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,023.23 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1e…1719backed No | 8c | 914.94$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -70%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8150…dbbfbacked No | 8c | 468.79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 5c | 430.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 5c | 380.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 15c | 376.29$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.04 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 15c | 301.82$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.07 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 79c | 279.43$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.82 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc57a…ee16backed Yes | 15c | 219$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.72 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 7c | 193.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.27 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked Yes | 13c | 167.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.48 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62fa…187dbacked Yes | 79c | 162.95$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 7c | 160.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.44 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 156.63$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.24 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…4bc5backed No | 19c | 144.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 17c | 143.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.86 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 132.77$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 119.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.99 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b9…c4a5backed No | 73c | 102.6$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 55c | 101.22$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.98 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 34c | 80.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.86 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed No | 17c | 73.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 25c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed No | 42c | 67.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 62c | 63.76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 22c | 62.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 77c | 53.28$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8798…45efbacked Yes | 21c | 52.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb9…901ebacked Yes | 59c | 49.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea14…bc02backed No | 44c | 47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 58c | 34.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.