Mls · resolved market
Nashville SC vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a1db108f34b987f16d4fd9b8a8adf0c12c8f876127ebc5f9295aa6bce16afe9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,635
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,635 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83d2…d196backed Over | 56c | 10,497$5,878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,619.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…c1f1backed Under | 44c | 3,500$1,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,540 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 44c | 2,036$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.84 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a40…c93fbacked Under | 44c | 1,500$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 1,222$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.74 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Over | 55c | 949.89$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.45 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 56c | 555$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.2 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -5.1wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -44%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 44c | 534$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.96 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 57c | 525.93$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.15 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc39…1564backed Under | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Under | 42c | 498.21$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.25 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 65c | 430.81$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.14 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 57c | 414.77$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.35 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -14.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 196 | 57.1%112 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Under | 43c | 265$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.95 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Under | 44c | 225$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 44c | 162$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.28 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 44c | 159.79$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.87 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 44c | 150$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked Under | 44c | 150$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under | 44c | 150$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 201 | 54.2%109 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 58c | 129.79$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.79 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Under | 44c | 125$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under | 44c | 115$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 36c | 110.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 42c | 101.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 68c | 90.1$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed Under | 44c | 90$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Under | 44c | 90$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Under | 44c | 86.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 34c | 77.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 43c | 62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…9db4backed Under | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Under | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Under | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Under | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Under | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Under | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Under | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Under | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Under | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked Under | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 44c | 50.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993a…1e2fbacked Over | 56c | 50.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46af…1f6abacked Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b5…798cbacked Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 58cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…c36fbacked Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 30c | 49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 34c | 48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Under | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…856cbacked Under | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0079…b852backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac5f…eb06backed Over | 57c | 35.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +123.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…5cb1backed Under | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Under | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc0…8f18backed Under | 43c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 44c | 25.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…8adabacked Under | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed Under | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nashville SC vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Nashville SC vs. Minnesota United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Nashville SC vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Nashville SC vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Nashville SC vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.