MLB · resolved market
Guardians vs. Athletics
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a3c09b38f5399536a3e16bf82f863531e80d2dc76e47c5de03a8309d2f47c4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Guardiansof Guardians, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,846
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,368
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,846 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Athletics | 22c | 3,231$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.59 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe895…c3dabacked Athletics | 7c | 3,210$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.7 | 452 | 48.2%218 W · 234 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Guardians | 67c | 2,836$1,894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.2 | 549 | 41%225 W · 324 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Guardians | 72c | 2,471$1,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.46 | 534 | 48.9%261 W · 273 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcce…136abacked Athletics | 37c | 2,285$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 292 | 40.8%119 W · 173 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Guardians | 50c | 2,208$1,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,104.22 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Athletics | 50c | 2,200$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 692 | 49%339 W · 353 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Athletics | 50c | 2,039$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.22 | 436 | 54.8%239 W · 197 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…b0cabacked Athletics | 2c | 1,750$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 466 | 31.1%145 W · 321 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Athletics | 13c | 1,649$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.99 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Guardians | 77c | 1,552$1,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.04 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Athletics | 20c | 1,140$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.67 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24b9…bcb1backed Athletics | 17c | 1,001$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 223 | 12.1%27 W · 196 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Athletics | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Guardians | 77c | 969$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.51 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Guardians | 65c | 893.75$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.95 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Athletics | 26c | 846.15$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 959 | 30%288 W · 671 L | -24.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Athletics | 46c | 833.71$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.51 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Athletics | 47c | 800$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Guardians | 53c | 750$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.5 | 1,010 | 51.2%517 W · 493 L | +36.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…afd0backed Athletics | 8c | 718.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Guardians | 54c | 620$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.2 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Guardians | 71c | 576.07$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.06 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Guardians | 50c | 550.83$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.42 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b57…d285backed Athletics | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…7d12backed Guardians | 54c | 462.96$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.96 | 182 | 47.8%87 W · 95 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked Guardians | 53c | 376.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.98 | 380 | 47.6%181 W · 199 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Guardians | 53c | 244.24$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Athletics | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Athletics | 48c | 209$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4472…a648backed Guardians | 53c | 206$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.82 | 999 | 51%509 W · 490 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Athletics | 49c | 205.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Guardians | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 927 | 54.9%509 W · 418 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Athletics | 47c | 199.95$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.97 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…18cebacked Guardians | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 313 | 56.2%176 W · 137 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Guardians | 78c | 162.87$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.81 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Athletics | 21c | 141.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,203 | 48.5%584 W · 619 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Athletics | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Guardians | 52c | 96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 1,402 | 48.8%684 W · 718 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…3d27backed Athletics | 16c | 91.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 130 | 21.5%28 W · 102 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Athletics | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82b9…3e7ebacked Athletics | 37c | 89.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Athletics | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 493 | 48.3%238 W · 255 L | +15.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61c0…21febacked Athletics | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Guardians | 52c | 61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Athletics | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Athletics | 27c | 55.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Athletics | 48c | 52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Guardians | 53c | 41.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Guardians | 75c | 40.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 519 | 53.2%276 W · 243 L | -24.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b89…23fbbacked Athletics | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Guardians | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed Guardians | 50c | 33.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 717 | 51%366 W · 351 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…f35cbacked Guardians | 52c | 30.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 255 | 50.2%128 W · 127 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Athletics | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229d…0922backed Guardians | 54c | 25.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…0e11backed Guardians | 79c | 23.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 429 | 55%236 W · 193 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Guardians | 53c | 23.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 401 | 52.4%210 W · 191 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.