NFL · resolved market
Will the Chiefs beat the Saints by 6 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a5ee20c2307c8f1e589b56e12b53c91c3c1367be8ad7512e2a627f757df64b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,123
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Yes | 53c | 4,334$2,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,035.91 | 251 | 37.5%94 W · 157 L | -18.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 51c | 3,274$1,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,669.63 | 442 | 46.8%207 W · 235 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 49c | 1,288$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.99 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 50c | 879.54$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.27 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked No | 52c | 712.77$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.77 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8d…22c0backed No | 51c | 696.27$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.1 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked No | 50c | 601.54$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.77 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x649f…83a3backed No | 51c | 445.69$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9125…9b72backed No | 51c | 396.08$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed No | 46c | 387.73$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed7…537abacked No | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6154…ec1bbacked Yes | 50c | 360$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28fe…4ce7backed No | 51c | 315.88$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…c5fdbacked Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e91…b801backed No | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdad0…dd38backed Yes | 50c | 268$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +55%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf318…0cdcbacked Yes | 72c | 257.54$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.26 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…b4efbacked No | 51c | 250$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40c8…8c47backed Yes | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0205…2b5ebacked Yes | 50c | 230$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd927…d5c3backed Yes | 50c | 214$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3959…a574backed Yes | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x675b…822abacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb49…97a0backed No | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6084…79c6backed Yes | 50c | 156.91$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.46 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd13…a813backed No | 51c | 150.98$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4da8…04d3backed Yes | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed No | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 202 | 46%93 W · 109 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fb…f97abacked Yes | 50c | 128.2$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.1 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2072…e33fbacked Yes | 50c | 121.8$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…3d1bbacked Yes | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Yes | 44c | 110.33$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…efb8backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…9926backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa503…31a7backed Yes | 50c | 81.4$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57fa…51c4backed Yes | 60c | 65.83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddfb…c994backed No | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed No | 59c | 46.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cec…1e3dbacked Yes | 65c | 39.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c79…15dbbacked Yes | 75c | 38.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49de…4dc5backed No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 48c | 22.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 293 | 56%164 W · 129 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Chiefs beat the Saints by 6 or more points?this page
- Will the Chiefs and Saints combine for 44 or more points?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.