NFL · resolved market
Will the Chiefs and Saints combine for 44 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee3b45826114fdd1630261b2475a3a6a5ce1c986e695a2ef2ea41bde7edc16cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,311
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,215
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,311 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 50c | 7,420$3,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,731.64 | 442 | 46.8%207 W · 235 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Yes | 50c | 4,475$2,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,237.53 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 75c | 4,005$3,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.5 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2800…2081backed Yes | 51c | 2,156$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.74 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda67…b950backed Yes | 2c | 2,060$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Yes | 50c | 2,020$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -8.3wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Yes | 50c | 444.94$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.47 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3959…a574backed Yes | 52c | 396.08$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 33c | 300$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed No | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 51c | 250$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 164 | 39.6%65 W · 99 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40c8…8c47backed No | 53c | 245.28$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…b4efbacked Yes | 50c | 245$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf318…0cdcbacked Yes | 70c | 210$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed No | 28c | 183.01$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.18 | 178 | 23%41 W · 137 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed No | 48c | 160$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddfb…c994backed Yes | 49c | 51.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7701…24e6backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 168 | 45.8%77 W · 91 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 47c | 37.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…7708backed Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 49c | 27.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5220…4e88backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 97 | 29.9%29 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3c…1613backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Chiefs and Saints combine for 44 or more points?this page
- Will the Chiefs beat the Saints by 6 or more points?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.