Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a8f332797ee3c2e29e99cbf8be81907b814dcd4353dc1b91b31d2aa5f0e0fa7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nigma Galaxyof Nigma Galaxy, Pipsqueak+4
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Pipsqueak+4 | 1c | 3,755$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Pipsqueak+4 | 33c | 1,208$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.36 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d0…6078backed Nigma Galaxy | 54c | 1,095$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.9 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef26…05babacked Pipsqueak+4 | 46c | 1,015$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.9 | 254 | 46.1%117 W · 137 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17ca…87d1backed Nigma Galaxy | 66c | 836.95$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.48 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | -15.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -15%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nigma Galaxy | 65c | 645.45$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.06 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb67…fd46backed Pipsqueak+4 | 5c | 499.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f2…d84fbacked Nigma Galaxy | 56c | 434.24$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.33 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Pipsqueak+4 | 45c | 431.99$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.4 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Nigma Galaxy | 67c | 257.94$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.94 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7945…f667backed Pipsqueak+4 | 47c | 254.83$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Pipsqueak+4 | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked Nigma Galaxy | 58c | 171.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.32 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…f5c1backed Nigma Galaxy | 59c | 169.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.54 | 131 | 57.3%75 W · 56 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7c…d12fbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 47c | 169.06$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Nigma Galaxy | 59c | 140.93$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 47c | 129.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…67e0backed Pipsqueak+4 | 42c | 115$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 737 | 43.6%321 W · 416 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…6631backed Pipsqueak+4 | 26c | 107.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce6…de1fbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 17c | 106.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…32f0backed Pipsqueak+4 | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1d…58fcbacked Nigma Galaxy | 59c | 70.68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Pipsqueak+4 | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Nigma Galaxy | 62c | 68.9$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…35bbbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 28c | 66.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…db26backed Nigma Galaxy | 60c | 50.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5305…57e8backed Pipsqueak+4 | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x687c…8c91backed Pipsqueak+4 | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Pipsqueak+4 | 28c | 48.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7512…68dfbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 43c | 46.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Nigma Galaxy | 56c | 44.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Pipsqueak+4 | 44c | 44.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ed…50efbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -4.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…0f7abacked Nigma Galaxy | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 32c | 36.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa08a…ad51backed Pipsqueak+4 | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…1271backed Pipsqueak+4 | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 240 | 26.7%64 W · 176 L | -30.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: Western Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsNigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winner Pipsqueak+4 won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.