Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6e45e749f1656098e9b5a26794cd163b81c45414e04850aa56b572ee101856e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pipsqueak+4of Nigma Galaxy, Pipsqueak+4
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3dd…a7e0backed Nigma Galaxy | 50c | 4,856$2,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,427.77 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 50c | 3,403$1,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,701.53 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97f2…d84fbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 40c | 2,919$1,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,750.25 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Pipsqueak+4 | 42c | 2,104$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,224.42 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed Nigma Galaxy | 65c | 1,999$1,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,295.29 | 344 | 68.9%237 W · 107 L | +26.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Nigma Galaxy | 4c | 1,520$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.26 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d0…6078backed Nigma Galaxy | 47c | 1,250$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.04 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…f012backed Nigma Galaxy | 73c | 1,073$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.15 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa0…ca20backed Nigma Galaxy | 13c | 1,036$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.76 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…6f1abacked Nigma Galaxy | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 49c | 900$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Pipsqueak+4 | 60c | 604$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.75 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed Pipsqueak+4 | 52c | 554.98$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.79 | 377 | 45.4%171 W · 206 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Nigma Galaxy | 59c | 378.85$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.92 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df0…96a6backed Nigma Galaxy | 25c | 347.4$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.37 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Pipsqueak+4 | 48c | 273.23$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.23 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed Nigma Galaxy | 43c | 251.16$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Pipsqueak+4 | 40c | 215.9$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.44 | 328 | 54.9%180 W · 148 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Nigma Galaxy | 11c | 214.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…3d8cbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 60c | 200.23$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.23 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 52c | 195.9$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.87 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…9be5backed Nigma Galaxy | 53c | 187.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Nigma Galaxy | 25c | 179.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.31 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Nigma Galaxy | 67c | 164.99$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.93 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ca…87d1backed Nigma Galaxy | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | -15.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -15%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…6631backed Nigma Galaxy | 30c | 137.63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed Nigma Galaxy | 9c | 134.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 49c | 124.73$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.39 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed Nigma Galaxy | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed Pipsqueak+4 | 32c | 115.63$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.63 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d8…ba9ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 57c | 110.47$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.07 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…32f0backed Pipsqueak+4 | 32c | 109.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…6274backed Nigma Galaxy | 47c | 104.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 171 | 52%89 W · 82 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5305…57e8backed Pipsqueak+4 | 54c | 85.53$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.34 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed Nigma Galaxy | 61c | 75.85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…a2b4backed Pipsqueak+4 | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7512…68dfbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 65c | 55.01$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…fb60backed Nigma Galaxy | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 504 | 44%222 W · 282 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5911…a4b5backed Nigma Galaxy | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Pipsqueak+4 | 51c | 49.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…0f7abacked Pipsqueak+4 | 53c | 39.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b0…8bc6backed Pipsqueak+4 | 35c | 39.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +186.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Pipsqueak+4 | 32c | 35.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5700…a854backed Nigma Galaxy | 49c | 33.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Pipsqueak+4 | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e0…9c9fbacked Nigma Galaxy | 75c | 27.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7063…206abacked Pipsqueak+4 | 55c | 26.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3a…a717backed Pipsqueak+4 | 77c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x687c…8c91backed Nigma Galaxy | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Nigma Galaxy | 48c | 24.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…c927backed Pipsqueak+4 | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…8476backed Pipsqueak+4 | 78c | 15.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: Western Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsNigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Pipsqueak+4 - Game 2 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.