MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ac756724dfba79e5dbc459e0a1e034efa7fbcd54e35da5d556b2fe5d52405ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $796
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 56c | 53.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 42c | 48.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9375…5a37backed No | 55c | 45.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 46c | 33.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4a…3026backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5620…1764backed No | 53c | 27.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe3…a79cbacked No | 53c | 26.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60f1…c7f6backed No | 53c | 26.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ddf…3ff6backed No | 53c | 25.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…f5d9backed No | 53c | 25.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc276…1c52backed No | 53c | 24.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94dc…c7b5backed No | 53c | 23.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.45per pick | 65cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa42d…4d66backed No | 52c | 23.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x080c…69f7backed No | 53c | 23.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e5…7347backed No | 53c | 23.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…b091backed No | 53c | 23.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf835…ec25backed No | 53c | 23.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c47…8cccbacked No | 53c | 23.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…d59bbacked No | 52c | 23.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…aa45backed No | 52c | 22.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…8220backed No | 53c | 22.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa79c…b036backed No | 53c | 22.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9eb…1dfebacked No | 52c | 22.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4dc…7945backed No | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x192d…b95abacked No | 53c | 21.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 52c | 20.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb611…e22dbacked No | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Marinersthis page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle MarinersBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.