MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7dd0c2afe776f2278a6195899436f940d3fcd8149ec05e35798283586f4f2846
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,977
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,914
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,977 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 54c | 9,497$5,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,368.46 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 46c | 9,000$4,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,140 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 46c | 2,198$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011.62 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 46c | 1,825$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.28 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 52c | 1,288$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.93 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Under | 54c | 1,019$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.74 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Under | 55c | 767.04$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.17 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 52c | 601.06$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.2 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 39c | 476.51$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.01 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda48…5926backed Over | 34c | 419.55$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.84 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 32c | 338.1$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.79 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 55c | 334$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.3 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba4…6de0backed Under | 55c | 287.62$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.43 | 209 | 45%94 W · 115 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Under | 56c | 275.13$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.06 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…d5ddbacked Under | 44c | 272.95$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 45c | 262.58$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.1 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 26c | 189.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 176.55$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.42 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 46c | 135.67$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.84 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 37c | 122.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 46c | 120$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 47c | 120$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 49c | 105.45$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 53c | 101.43$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Over | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa70f…a14fbacked Under | 54c | 91.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.98 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Over | 45c | 76.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3833…33d1backed Under | 54c | 75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 52cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 55c | 74.06$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Over | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 358 | 49.4%177 W · 181 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 46c | 69.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Over | 46c | 69.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 515 | 45.2%233 W · 282 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Under | 31c | 64.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.51 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Over | 19c | 59.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 211 | 49.3%104 W · 107 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Over | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 46c | 42.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 69c | 40.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 62c | 35.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 51c | 29.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf15…1068backed Over | 45c | 29.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 149 | 51.7%77 W · 72 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Under | 61c | 28.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f2…a6fabacked Under | 55c | 27.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 102 | 53.9%55 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 64c | 26.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17af…2a45backed Over | 52c | 25.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ac…427fbacked Over | 48c | 24.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4270…6168backed Over | 49c | 24.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Under | 54c | 20.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc93d…23d5backed Under | 60c | 18.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle MarinersBoston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.