MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3af41c3663071a2f1bf2461e812742f995c18a2a76c5e572f9ceb6bff0e8558a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Seattle Mariners, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,904
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,904 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a23…4454backed Boston Red Sox | 66c | 2,273$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.73 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 2,023$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.23 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Boston Red Sox | 64c | 1,813$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.87 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 1,569$1,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.01 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 1,205$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.67 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Seattle Mariners | 34c | 1,137$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.66 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Seattle Mariners | 34c | 378.04$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.53 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab96…989fbacked Seattle Mariners | 35c | 356.79$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.88 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 333.33$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 963 | 49%472 W · 491 L | -39.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 304.95$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.73 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 272$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.52 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Boston Red Sox | 59c | 272$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.52 | 296 | 47.3%140 W · 156 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Seattle Mariners | 35c | 250$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 194 | 35.6%69 W · 125 L | -7.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb05e…599abacked Boston Red Sox | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x63ec…3b76backed Boston Red Sox | 66c | 150.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.52 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Seattle Mariners | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Seattle Mariners | 16c | 118.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 548 | 15.9%87 W · 461 L | -41.1wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d14…6498backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 110.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…5ba6backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 89.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Seattle Mariners | 34c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Boston Red Sox | 62c | 78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 69.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Seattle Mariners | 34c | 67.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Boston Red Sox | 77c | 53.82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Boston Red Sox | 56c | 43.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Seattle Mariners | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Boston Red Sox | 64c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Seattle Mariners | 34c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Boston Red Sox | 80c | 30.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Seattle Mariners | 42c | 29.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 906 | 69.9%633 W · 273 L | +94.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox | 78c | 29.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7b…b82ebacked Boston Red Sox | 54c | 27.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Boston Red Sox | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 21.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a9…6f76backed Boston Red Sox | 63c | 18.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle MarinersBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.