Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ad7d68d0860f4fa71cd233f9ab9584d1bf8f5e9c48aea321edf7ec2b2218c1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,321 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 26c | 505.29$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.3 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 11c | 492.4$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.14 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 452.53$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.96 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…0a64backed Yes | 80c | 312.55$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.55 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 31c | 252.57$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.67 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…e08ebacked Yes | 35c | 198.74$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.63 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 5c | 188.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 44c | 161.79$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.29 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x740e…93a9backed Yes | 63c | 155.6$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.64 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 23c | 147$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.84 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 137.19$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.78 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 41c | 130.65$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.64 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 17c | 124.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 46c | 121.94$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.32 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ba…d397backed No | 29c | 108.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 46cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…1f89backed Yes | 46c | 108.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.68 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe678…9dcdbacked Yes | 72c | 105.25$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 74c | 100.88$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.02 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 31c | 97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.93 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 93.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.01 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 33c | 92.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc9…dce0backed Yes | 39c | 89.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.39 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 87.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.01 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 52c | 83.18$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 80.95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.43 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 76.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 45c | 73.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 65c | 69.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 40c | 66.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f4…5d3dbacked Yes | 79c | 61.94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 71cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 68c | 61$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 60c | 53.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 53.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 41c | 48.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca9b…56eebacked Yes | 36c | 48.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 40cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x955a…ff6abacked Yes | 48c | 45.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 65c | 45.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…31aebacked Yes | 65c | 44.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c79…c259backed No | 63c | 43.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 35c | 43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 27c | 42.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6160…fdfcbacked No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 64c | 39.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…63b0backed Yes | 52c | 38.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…bc9bbacked No | 69c | 38.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 66c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 36c | 35.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913a…a3e7backed Yes | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 55c | 34.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6390…9bf0backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25eb…0506backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1131…a2c3backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d8…88b4backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 69c | 27.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0416…616cbacked Yes | 65c | 23.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 63c | 22.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…ef82backed No | 66c | 21.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 59c | 20.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4e…b99abacked Yes | 79c | 20.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 76cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbebb…28b8backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 67c | 19.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…2987backed Yes | 76c | 17.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 75c | 15.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…d801backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C or below on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.