Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfB Stuttgart vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ae6d8a2c08196bc7c9d2b124ed8b6669538bdd999dadd8d817db7e91e55d488
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0cc7…7349backed Yes | 1c | 2,649$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 18c | 1,574$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.24 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0d…dea7backed Yes | 17c | 1,471$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe521…9caebacked Yes | 18c | 1,172$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa62d…92e0backed Yes | 17c | 664.71$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…b6a5backed Yes | 17c | 600.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.17 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +5.7wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes | 21c | 479.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 11c | 476$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed Yes | 17c | 301.73$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.29 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Yes | 18c | 280.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 79c | 226.42$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.49 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…f8f3backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Yes | 17c | 180$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed Yes | 17c | 149.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87bc…ff29backed Yes | 17c | 117$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc09…21d0backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78a8…01cbbacked Yes | 18c | 99.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 17c | 79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa9…a3c3backed Yes | 18c | 77.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e66…e1b2backed Yes | 17c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae2…8d89backed Yes | 18c | 57.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfB Stuttgart vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw?this page
- Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-01?Yes won
- Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-03-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.