Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-03-01?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69f75f5938a43ef01cc7ac4cb16859e56bd6ca05fdd9ef75167f56a9430fd6c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,153
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,153 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0cc7…7349backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 12c | 7,975$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.27 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 12c | 6,312$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.46 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 9c | 4,996$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.88 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Yes | 12c | 4,166$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.92 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7f…4ac4backed Yes | 13c | 2,600$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,130$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.79 | 143 | 15.4%22 W · 121 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40b9…b002backed Yes | 13c | 2,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3926…5863backed Yes | 4c | 1,550$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 12c | 1,257$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.67 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ff…24e3backed Yes | 13c | 984.62$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Yes | 2c | 912$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Yes | 12c | 601.33$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…f0babacked Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 12c | 461.09$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.17 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecad…875cbacked Yes | 13c | 310$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…7ffabacked Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 194 | 46.4%90 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Yes | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 14c | 207.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee50…0536backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Yes | 13c | 180$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae2…8d89backed Yes | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed92…fbf2backed Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb301…79ddbacked Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa9…a3c3backed Yes | 13c | 107.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 14c | 107.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78a8…01cbbacked Yes | 14c | 99.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-03-01?this page
- Will VfB Stuttgart vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw?No won
- Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-01?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.