College Football · resolved market
Will Utah beat TCU?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ae936608fc6aef0391d5281a0ad10efa44e7f237b3511327c90def8c302d32c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- TCUof Utah, TCU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd057…ae9fbacked Utah | 13c | 5,582$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.68 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…4173backed TCU | 33c | 1,579$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,057.7 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ce…ab3abacked Utah | 67c | 1,493$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed TCU | 73c | 1,026$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.17 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Utah | 32c | 931.34$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Utah | 64c | 700$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed TCU | 36c | 610$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.4 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabd7…c531backed TCU | 66c | 500$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +109.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Utah | 66c | 378.79$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 120 | 42.5%51 W · 69 L | -11.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x531a…da3cbacked Utah | 43c | 350$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.5 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13a6…ee95backed TCU | 51c | 301$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.02 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…1de4backed Utah | 13c | 250$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed TCU | 36c | 210.19$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.52 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Utah | 31c | 205.77$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.88 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…12a3backed TCU | 34c | 200$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c7…053ebacked TCU | 34c | 199.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e71…3838backed Utah | 28c | 180$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…3d1bbacked Utah | 64c | 142.53$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.22 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x378a…a638backed Utah | 14c | 142.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Utah | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 242 | 29.3%71 W · 171 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed TCU | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd975…c6d6backed TCU | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Utah | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2376…30f5backed Utah | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed Utah | 66c | 37.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.38per pick | 67cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57fa…51c4backed Utah | 62c | 36.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…7399backed Utah | 46c | 32.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -6.0wins | -0.33per pick | 61cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked TCU | 34c | 31.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 190 | 51.6%98 W · 92 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Utah | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 188 | 58%109 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.