Other European Leagues · resolved market
AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2af92bbcd2e9c47f7d75e0b0c9ce62854111e8de5903ef0de0959e96ccd5aa9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,021
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,021 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 62c | 2,811$1,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,736.45 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 2,147$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.44 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 63c | 1,402$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.61 | 920 | 43.4%399 W · 521 L | -4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 52c | 1,146$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.23 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40e8…88a4backed Over | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Over | 36c | 833.33$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…e01bbacked Over | 24c | 833.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.33 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…f183backed Over | 23c | 785.13$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.63 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x274b…d408backed Over | 50c | 596.29$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.15 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…b935backed Over | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa7…3fbabacked Over | 51c | 445.02$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.06 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 53c | 392.34$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.02 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0d…cce6backed Over | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 316 | 61.7%195 W · 121 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 53c | 302.88$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.96 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 27c | 288.89$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 119 | 41.2%49 W · 70 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 52c | 151.15$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.02 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 20c | 150$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 357 | 40.6%145 W · 212 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 27c | 142.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.78 | 1,240 | 39.2%486 W · 754 L | -35.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…0742backed Over | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 71cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc936…c08abacked Over | 19c | 121.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb723…d9dcbacked Over | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 53c | 85$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 513 | 56.3%289 W · 224 L | +23.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 37c | 63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 911 | 48%437 W · 474 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Under | 50c | 56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 210 | 36.7%77 W · 133 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x249b…8a1abacked Over | 63c | 55.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116e…43bbbacked Over | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked Over | 41c | 49.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 107 | 34.6%37 W · 70 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…1260backed Over | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc82…3918backed Over | 63c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 985 | 52.3%515 W · 470 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…c208backed Over | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 1.5this page
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 2.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 3.5Under won
- AFC Ajax vs. FC Utrecht: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-1.5)FC Utrecht won
- Spread: FC Utrecht (-1.5)AFC Ajax won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.