Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b05151c91bfdf4cb841ed76a61a20c0ae33d9aeeaa8cd97e57bbda205a67319
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 6c | 521.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 10c | 501.57$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 317.74$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.83 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 9c | 259.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 9c | 253.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 185.36$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.24 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 13c | 169.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 155.73$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 140.51$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 36c | 139.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e37…5396backed No | 74c | 131.49$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.08 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked No | 75c | 129.24$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 33c | 128.74$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 28c | 113.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 26c | 103.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 33c | 97.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 75c | 90.37$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3aeb…df1ebacked Yes | 37c | 85.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb999…b00dbacked Yes | 39c | 84.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 26c | 83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea8…e6cfbacked Yes | 31c | 72.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 37c | 71.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…4c59backed Yes | 35c | 70.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 35c | 62.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef6a…18e8backed No | 66c | 62.11$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…bf33backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 34c | 58.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 55.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 33c | 54.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 53.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 36c | 50.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 39c | 50.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 34c | 49.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 33c | 48.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 62c | 48.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 67c | 44.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 32c | 39.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 37c | 39.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed No | 66c | 39.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 32c | 38.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 37c | 38.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 70c | 36.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce8a…2fbabacked No | 67c | 36.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 34.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 32c | 31.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d76…89c6backed Yes | 35c | 31.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…2822backed Yes | 32c | 31.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…8975backed No | 63c | 31.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 36c | 29.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x884c…2ee9backed Yes | 37c | 29.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ba…21a7backed Yes | 36c | 28.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -55%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4a…f43dbacked Yes | 39c | 26.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05a5…40aebacked No | 68c | 24.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67e2…be4bbacked No | 75c | 23.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 70c | 20.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked No | 67c | 19.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…c821backed No | 64c | 18.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 73c | 18.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb218…edfdbacked No | 77c | 15.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ae…7bc6backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on April 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or higher on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.