Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9836cfec935750eff9d8ae0332ce03af42bf83d6e1b06f0fe81612300a8edbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,036
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc6f…f0f0backed Yes | 13c | 1,119$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.71 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 22c | 673.35$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.65 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…55e4backed No | 69c | 542.14$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.38 | 48 | 87.5%42 W · 6 L | +12.0wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +49%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 481.13$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 5c | 380.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 327.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.38 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe82a…db8dbacked Yes | 8c | 326.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 11c | 318.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 16c | 265.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 8c | 247.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes | 8c | 230.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 112 | 23.2%26 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 17c | 206.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 71c | 179.47$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.26 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa133…5fdcbacked Yes | 7c | 173.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 11c | 170.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…0f04backed No | 60c | 158.87$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.82 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fab…775abacked Yes | 11c | 155.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 78 | 9%7 W · 71 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf92e…2e92backed Yes | 46c | 155.41$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.68 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 22c | 154.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 55c | 150$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.1 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 28c | 147.69$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 48c | 146.95$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.43 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 26c | 138.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Yes | 12c | 137.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 136.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 15c | 136.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6825…836abacked Yes | 54c | 127.63$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.38 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a38…16a5backed Yes | 22c | 102$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 15c | 98.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 37c | 90$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.09 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d0abbacked Yes | 28c | 89.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 17c | 79.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Yes | 23c | 73.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 42c | 71.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.59 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed No | 52c | 64.89$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…ca1cbacked Yes | 50c | 59.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…9724backed Yes | 25c | 59.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 52c | 52.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 79c | 48.75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd126…85c1backed Yes | 37c | 43.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x178b…0c67backed Yes | 23c | 43.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 41.02$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed No | 77c | 29.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6969…c0c1backed No | 80c | 24.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…4908backed No | 80c | 24.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 68c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes | 63c | 21.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed No | 66c | 19.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x609f…ada6backed Yes | 56c | 18.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 16.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on April 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or higher on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.