Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58fa553fb88e20bf4c639ca2adcf97bef55bd369f735ee99eeac58d3cac47321
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3380…da7ebacked No | 1c | 5,557$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2475…32d6backed No | 4c | 358.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 40c | 299.82$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.82 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 282.68$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 13c | 275.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 42c | 252.35$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.9 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 67c | 249.09$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.27 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 77c | 232.89$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.08 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 204.6$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 40c | 176.47$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.02 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 161.14$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 70c | 159.02$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.29 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 63c | 152.82$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.55 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 33c | 144.58$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.43 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 42c | 140.42$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.12 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 34c | 133.72$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.81 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked No | 73c | 130.31$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.66 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 44c | 130.16$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.19 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 129.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 74c | 126.06$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.84 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 62c | 123.15$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.81 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 40c | 119.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.29 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a38…16a5backed Yes | 61c | 111.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.82 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 49c | 107.97$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.26 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 32c | 97.14$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.18 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4789…b286backed Yes | 34c | 96.82$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.13 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 53c | 92.25$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 91.9$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2588…48babacked Yes | 54c | 90$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 43c | 88.25$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.54 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 80$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9575backed Yes | 60c | 79.65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 51c | 79.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 37c | 78.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 32c | 76.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 25c | 70.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 68.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21e8…148abacked No | 40c | 68.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9765…242ebacked Yes | 48c | 62.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d78…5678backed Yes | 30c | 61.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…ca1cbacked Yes | 34c | 59.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.51 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe951…ea77backed No | 65c | 59.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x609f…ada6backed Yes | 73c | 57.22$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…0053backed Yes | 80c | 56.89$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 37c | 55.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 45c | 49.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 49c | 47.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…9144backed Yes | 40c | 47.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 41c | 46.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 64c | 45.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e9…0beabacked Yes | 45c | 40.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…b697backed Yes | 44c | 39.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a9…ffa8backed Yes | 48c | 38.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…25cabacked Yes | 45c | 37.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 122 | 33.6%41 W · 81 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a99…1838backed No | 77c | 36.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 97 | 70.1%68 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 75cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 39c | 36.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea8…e6cfbacked Yes | 38c | 35.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e06…d401backed No | 70c | 35.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…8975backed No | 57c | 35.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb999…b00dbacked Yes | 40c | 35.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 55c | 34.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 58c | 34.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…e5bfbacked Yes | 40c | 33.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 58c | 33.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 39c | 32.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x302f…141cbacked Yes | 49c | 32.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4850…0ebdbacked Yes | 38c | 31.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +165.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 55c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 62c | 30.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed Yes | 43c | 30.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7961…eaa8backed Yes | 64c | 30.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 69 | 73.9%51 W · 18 L | +7.9wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…9724backed Yes | 67c | 29.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed No | 53c | 29.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b3…16a2backed Yes | 35c | 29.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf92e…2e92backed Yes | 49c | 28.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 52c | 27.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x90ab…6938backed No | 60c | 25.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 52c | 24.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…f66abacked Yes | 45c | 24.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 57c | 22.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed No | 51c | 20.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6825…836abacked Yes | 60c | 19.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 63c | 19.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 55c | 18.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x113b…3048backed No | 78c | 18.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 62c | 17.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c04…3d8bbacked No | 64c | 16.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05a5…40aebacked No | 64c | 15.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed No | 79c | 14.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd31a…5f51backed Yes | 79c | 14.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.04 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 37cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or higher on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.