Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team AION vs Dandelions - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b14c76c1344ec2479685868c03c47028d33638cae2b10b44af6bc8edf6de32a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dandelionsof Team AION, Dandelions
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,995
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,995 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed Team AION | 31c | 1,052$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.87 | 480 | 54%259 W · 221 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e5…519dbacked Dandelions | 56c | 828.51$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.82 | 127 | 64.6%82 W · 45 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c71…c0e5backed Dandelions | 78c | 769.99$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.95 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f1…e67bbacked Dandelions | 77c | 701.24$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.24 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e7…91a2backed Team AION | 2c | 579.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf52…efdfbacked Dandelions | 60c | 534.44$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.32 | 215 | 58.6%126 W · 89 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53e9…5ef8backed Team AION | 30c | 499.98$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.99 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…32cbbacked Team AION | 48c | 430.85$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.44 | 538 | 44.4%239 W · 299 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed Team AION | 44c | 353.19$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.35 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Dandelions | 56c | 347.94$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.26 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…d03fbacked Dandelions | 66c | 313$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.46 | 179 | 65.4%117 W · 62 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Dandelions | 66c | 306.58$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.47 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…c012backed Team AION | 63c | 290.3$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…f5d7backed Team AION | 20c | 202$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 372 | 53%197 W · 175 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…a74cbacked Team AION | 34c | 199.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd788…5f8ebacked Dandelions | 75c | 199.19$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.19 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a8…8b4dbacked Dandelions | 52c | 182.69$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.69 | 159 | 57.9%92 W · 67 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Dandelions | 71c | 172.87$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.67 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee1…377abacked Dandelions | 76c | 166.26$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.34 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Dandelions | 42c | 165$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.07 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -10.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe790…698cbacked Dandelions | 66c | 142.83$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.56 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b6…5d73backed Dandelions | 53c | 129.7$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.41 | 133 | 36.8%49 W · 84 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Dandelions | 80c | 125.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 464 | 51.5%239 W · 225 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Dandelions | 69c | 120$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked Team AION | 45c | 119.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 802 | 56%449 W · 353 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Team AION | 17c | 110$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5f…6219backed Dandelions | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d2…c938backed Team AION | 35c | 101.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.66 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x180c…cd04backed Team AION | 53c | 100.01$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 437 | 38.4%168 W · 269 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Team AION | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 421 | 46.6%196 W · 225 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf201…f884backed Dandelions | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +8.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd85…1a8dbacked Team AION | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 96 | 61.5%59 W · 37 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31b9…150bbacked Team AION | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 592 | 54.1%320 W · 272 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x142f…19f9backed Dandelions | 63c | 89.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 234 | 42.7%100 W · 134 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ada…dcb4backed Team AION | 42c | 84.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc59…1b00backed Team AION | 23c | 83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4339…beeebacked Dandelions | 74c | 75.68$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…a98abacked Dandelions | 60c | 69.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 97 | 57.7%56 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Team AION | 27c | 65.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Team AION | 26c | 57.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59e2…1c55backed Dandelions | 66c | 54.93$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 475 | 48%228 W · 247 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e9…b2e0backed Dandelions | 67c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 30 | 83.3%25 W · 5 L | +4.5wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Team AION | 32c | 46.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked Dandelions | 67c | 43.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Team AION | 33c | 37.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 328 | 6.4%21 W · 307 L | -102.4wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 18-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0x330f…91b1backed Dandelions | 63c | 34.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 132 | 59.1%78 W · 54 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5b…3b06backed Team AION | 65c | 30.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Dandelions | 78c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 656 | 47.3%310 W · 346 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf07b…def2backed Team AION | 38c | 26.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc925…6d24backed Dandelions | 52c | 23.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 416 | 32.7%136 W · 280 L | -37.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe57f…7337backed Dandelions | 55c | 21.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -7.3wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb491…4400backed Dandelions | 50c | 21.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba57…1e84backed Dandelions | 70c | 21.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 150 | 50.7%76 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Dandelions | 70c | 20.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 302 | 51.7%156 W · 146 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4787…db20backed Dandelions | 68c | 18.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Dandelions | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 123 | 53.7%66 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team AION vs Dandelions - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team AION vs Dandelions (BO3) - EPL Masters Play-In Group BTeam AION won
- Dota 2: Team AION vs Dandelions - Game 2 WinnerTeam AION won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game 2: Any Player Rampage?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.