Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Marina Bassols Ribera vs Himeno Sakatsume
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b2e05489d74fb1ab0e8128c3f9f1161bb53e8c5f679094fe0e7eb390983fec3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sakatsumeof Ribera, Sakatsume
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,356
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sakatsume | 59c | 4,675$2,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,918.78 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Ribera | 32c | 3,857$1,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,227.7 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06eb…1a5fbacked Ribera | 61c | 1,649$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.67 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Sakatsume | 70c | 1,062$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.82 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf946…d542backed Ribera | 27c | 962.61$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.48 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x336a…1915backed Sakatsume | 72c | 690.07$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.07 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Ribera | 28c | 663$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.17 | 254 | 33.5%85 W · 169 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Ribera | 33c | 609.95$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.38 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Ribera | 30c | 600$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.42 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -8.6wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Ribera | 27c | 508.08$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.7 | 190 | 23.2%44 W · 146 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Ribera | 27c | 444.05$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.6 | 470 | 57.2%269 W · 201 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed Ribera | 27c | 443.32$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.42 | 761 | 46.6%355 W · 406 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Ribera | 29c | 400$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 586 | 39.6%232 W · 354 L | -21.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Ribera | 33c | 353.76$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.72 | 161 | 50.3%81 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Ribera | 41c | 327$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.21 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Ribera | 35c | 156.28$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.91 | 925 | 48.8%451 W · 474 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3801…83ddbacked Sakatsume | 67c | 152.56$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.04 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.33per pick | 57cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Sakatsume | 71c | 137.77$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.88 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Sakatsume | 61c | 110.92$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked Sakatsume | 69c | 76$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8104…3128backed Sakatsume | 56c | 58.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Ribera | 24c | 58.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Ribera | 34c | 51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Ribera | 62c | 49.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc955…56adbacked Sakatsume | 76c | 49.1$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5815…ed96backed Sakatsume | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…1420backed Sakatsume | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 222 | 58.1%129 W · 93 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Ribera | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Sakatsume | 73c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 602 | 40.5%244 W · 358 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec0e…672cbacked Ribera | 44c | 31.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -6.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…7426backed Sakatsume | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x251b…e9f4backed Sakatsume | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…3679backed Sakatsume | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -6.0wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Sakatsume | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ad…44febacked Sakatsume | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.