Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b547c0758cce4411770638a2d30822a00359fae5ff9884ca1c5eae4fc0c7e63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 559.23$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.32 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 6c | 515.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 24c | 401.97$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.77 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b0…9f87backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 15c | 391.86$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.67 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 14c | 306.34$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab5…f7d8backed Yes | 8c | 300.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 267.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 17c | 264.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.54 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 5c | 249.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fab…775abacked Yes | 6c | 214.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 78 | 9%7 W · 71 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…77a7backed Yes | 10c | 188.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 14c | 176.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb0…5761backed Yes | 38c | 172.48$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 16c | 158.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 149.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 18c | 128.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 27c | 113.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 113$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 13c | 108.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…4c59backed Yes | 21c | 89.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 19c | 89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 73c | 65.48$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 32c | 58.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ea…a65fbacked No | 78c | 48.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 114 | 23.7%27 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 34c | 46.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ca…65a1backed No | 78c | 40.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 36.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…3c16backed Yes | 31c | 35.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a60…3902backed No | 77c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +99%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…8dbbbacked No | 79c | 30.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefbe…1b08backed No | 77c | 27.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd0…a3b5backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…1543backed No | 77c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 69cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 76c | 18.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 72c | 17.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 79c | 17.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 71c | 17.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 78c | 16.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on April 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C or higher on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.