Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9109a865a69cbccf5e3df5ad3cfb9c596a7bd521e0931cd7e772e2c8430694e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,357
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,357 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 78c | 1,220$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.91 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 79c | 601.5$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.34 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked No | 41c | 455.31$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.51 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 59c | 404.43$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.3 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 25c | 400.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.12 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 30c | 353.76$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.43 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 49c | 277.22$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.42 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 23c | 253.24$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 35c | 244.65$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.91 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 27c | 212.25$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.36 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed Yes | 63c | 202.4$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.73 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 6c | 190.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 56c | 186.56$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.65 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 36c | 174.37$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.17 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 56c | 152.97$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.21 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 71c | 140.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.01 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 42c | 132.23$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.7 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 49c | 127.75$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.22 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 18c | 116.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 112.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.86 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe708…4e48backed Yes | 43c | 109.13$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ea…a65fbacked No | 58c | 97.86$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 114 | 23.7%27 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 32c | 97.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.86 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 66c | 90.59$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked No | 35c | 88.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 53c | 86.75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 30c | 78.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 32c | 71.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 29c | 70.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 70.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 27c | 70.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 65c | 67.55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 32c | 66.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.53 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013a…e374backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 75c | 65.8$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…b823backed No | 33c | 61.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked Yes | 61c | 59.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 67c | 57.13$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb785…b54abacked Yes | 75c | 54.45$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…6c4ebacked No | 34c | 54.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 53.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 32c | 51.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 60c | 50.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…4c59backed Yes | 68c | 50.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 73c | 49.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 34c | 49.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 65c | 48.59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 41c | 47.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7309…95bdbacked No | 23c | 46.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…39e5backed Yes | 41c | 45.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 44.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 68c | 41.94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked No | 32c | 39.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 59c | 38.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 40c | 37.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 63c | 36.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 36.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 34.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa80e…8496backed Yes | 41c | 32.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 38c | 31.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcbf…4ccbbacked No | 36c | 31.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…e457backed No | 37c | 30.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…f8d5backed Yes | 63c | 25.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c28…2343backed Yes | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 67c | 24.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 63c | 23.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a06…ff99backed No | 53c | 23.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 20.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 68c | 19.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 72c | 18.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d4…0a37backed Yes | 65c | 18.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b31…6709backed Yes | 63c | 17.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…f73bbacked Yes | 68c | 17.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 69c | 15.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 69c | 15.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…d923backed No | 71c | 14.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed No | 72c | 14.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 75c | 13.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C or higher on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.